World Bank raises Ukraine reconstruction cost estimate to $588 billion

The World Bank updated its cost estimate for Ukraine's reconstruction Monday, raising it to $588 billion as of the end of last year from $524 billion in its previous report. The bank stated the updated 10-year projection is nearly three times Ukraine's gross domestic product in 2025, as the war with Russia enters its fourth year.

Recovery Progress and Needs

"With the support of development partners, the Government of Ukraine is taking significant steps to meet recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2026," the bank said, including public investment projects and essential programs such as destroyed housing funding, demining, and multisector economic support totaling over $15 billion. At least $20 billion in needs have been met since February 2022 through emergency repairs and early recovery activities in housing, energy, education, and transportation.

Direct Damage Surpasses $195 Billion

Direct damage in Ukraine has now reached over $195 billion, up from $176 billion previously, with housing, transport, and energy sectors most affected. "Damage, losses and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas," the statement noted. Energy sector damaged assets increased approximately 21% since last year's report, while transportation needs rose about 24%.

Sectoral Breakdown

Reconstruction and recovery needs are highest in transport, exceeding $96 billion, followed by energy at nearly $91 billion and housing at almost $90 billion. Commerce and industry requires over $63 billion, while agriculture accounts for more than $55 billion. Explosives hazard management and debris clearance are estimated at nearly $28 billion despite progress in demining efforts. As of late 2025, 14% of housing stock was damaged or destroyed, affecting over 3 million households.