Domestic developments putting pressure on Trump..

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking at the “Davos Forum,” not only declared the rules-based, liberal international order dead, but also explained “what this order really was.” Carney places more responsibility on the U.S. and Trump than on anything else for the death of the international order. However, he does not say much about what kind of order should replace the old one.

Carney proposes “values-based realism” for “middle powers” such as Western European countries. Yet Carney’s realism is limited to accepting the world “as it is.” This realism stands out mostly as “economic realism.” By emphasizing unity among the leading beneficiaries of the old order—excluding the U.S.—Carney once again leaves those “at the bottom” where they are.

Carney points to the advantages of acting collectively rather than being in a weak position in bilateral agreements with the U.S., saying, “Middle powers must act together, because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” At the same time, acting as a spokesperson for European liberals, Carney also sends a message to the U.S. that economic cooperation with China could be an option.

Of course, this message is not directed only at Trump, but also at the bipartisan elites who form the pillars of the “American establishment.” Trump treating Canada like a 51st state and his eagerness to turn Greenland into American property amount to “the death of NATO.”

Western entrenched liberals do not want a direct confrontation with the U.S. They do not have the power to risk that. That is why they hope the U.S. Congress will rein Trump in. Indeed, Trump stepped back from turning Greenland into U.S. property, saying he had struck a very good deal. The content of the deal is unclear, but it is evident that Trump has been constrained “from within.”

The midterm elections to be held in November are of vital importance for Trump. Trump has to calculate the internal balances of the Republican coalition. “Atlanticism” is one of those balances. Even if mainstream Republican hawks consent to Trump pressuring NATO allies to increase defense spending, they oppose pressure that could lead to a rupture.

During Trump’s first presidency, relations between the U.S. and “Liberal Europe” had also deteriorated. When Joe Biden was elected president in 2020, Europe breathed a sigh of relief. Now, “Liberal Europe” is hoping that Republicans will lose control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections. They believe that Democrats gaining control of both chambers would rein Trump in. Taking into account that Trump will not be in the White House in 2028, they do not want to completely sever ties with the U.S. In short, “Liberal Europe” is betting on time.

Trump’s economic and immigration policies have put at risk the “multi-colored coalition” that carried him to victory in the 2024 elections. Trump had increased his support among non-white Americans—especially Hispanics—to an unexpected degree. Polls are signaling that this coalition is collapsing. With his approval rating falling, red lights are flashing for Trump. Generally, when an incumbent president’s approval rating falls below 50 percent, it results in the party losing its majorities in both chambers in the midterm elections.

Trump is looking for new victories that will raise his approval rating. That is why he is testing the waters with back-and-forth moves. However, it is observed that intervening in Venezuela, threatening Canada, and attempts to seize Greenland have not significantly boosted Trump’s approval ratings.

It is still unclear whether the U.S. military buildup in the Gulf targeting Iran is meant to impose a “blockade” or to prepare for an “attack.” What is certain is that the buildup sends a strong signal aimed at forcing Iran to accept U.S. demands. It is also clear that this military deployment has been positioned in a way that could turn into an attack. Everything depends on Iran’s ability to withstand military pressure and on whether Trump is willing to accept the consequences of a new attack.

While all this is happening in the Gulf, the U.S. itself is on the brink of a new internal confrontation. The killing of yet another U.S. citizen by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Minneapolis, during operations against immigrants, sparked major outrage.

Not only Democrats, but even some Republican governors are deeply disturbed by federal intervention in states in this manner. If foreign policy is a reflection of domestic politics, then Trump’s actions abroad will undoubtedly be shaped accordingly. If Trump believes that an attack on Iran will benefit him domestically, he will do it.