The Israel Lobby on the Defensive

In my previous column, I noted that taking a clear stance against Israel’s U.S.-backed genocide in Gaza has become a political litmus test for today’s Democratic Party. I also pointed out that young Democrats have launched efforts to reject election donations coming from the “American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).” Likewise, I highlighted that some lawmakers have announced they will not accept “AIPAC money” in the 2026 primaries.

Figures likely to run in the 2028 presidential elections are already feeling compelled to clarify their positions on Israel. This pressure stems from growing backlash against Israel among the Democratic base. According to a recent Gallup poll, only 8% of Democrats support Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Young Democrats are pushing to align the party’s policies on Israel with the attitudes of its voters. The solution mainstream pro-Israel party leadership has come up with in response to grassroots pressure is to draw a line between Israel and Netanyahu. This middle-ground formula of “criticizing Netanyahu while defending Israel” does not satisfy the base. Young Democrats, meanwhile, are furious that the party’s mainstream leadership is turning its back on grassroots demands to end military aid to Israel.

It is now acknowledged that unconditional support for Israel cost Democrats the White House in the 2024 elections. In fact, Kamala Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, admitted in a speech that “we didn’t read the voters’ reaction to Gaza properly.” Walz also warned that support for Israel will remain a problem in the 2028 elections. This shift in Walz’s tone is tied to speculation that he may run for president in 2028.

Pete Buttigieg, another name floated for 2028, recently appeared on the “Pod Save America” podcast. Buttigieg sidestepped questions about whether the U.S. should send weapons to Israel or recognize a Palestinian state. While referring to the U.S.-Israel friendship, he described the genocide in Gaza merely as “shocking images that shook consciences.” This interview triggered a major backlash from Democrats who are critical of Israel.

Representative Ro Khanna, also considered a potential 2028 contender, criticized Buttigieg in a post on “X,” saying: “We need moral clarity, not the status quo.” Khanna was also among the signatories of a letter in Congress urging the U.S. to recognize a Palestinian state at the September UN General Assembly. In an interview with Politico, Khanna said Gaza and Israel would be decisive issues in both the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.

Following the backlash, Buttigieg made a sharp turn from his “Pod Save America” comments in another interview with Politico. Stressing that he understood the criticism, Buttigieg now said he supported halting U.S. arms sales to Israel and recognizing a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution.

While many potential presidential hopefuls for 2028 are openly criticizing Israel, others are choosing to remain silent for now. The “Gaza test” applies not only to members of Congress, senators, and presidential hopefuls, but also to candidates running for governor.

At the Democratic National Committee (DNC) meeting later this month, proposals will be discussed on imposing an arms embargo on Israel and recognizing a Palestinian state. Another proposal on the table is about blocking the influence of “big money” and “dark money” in the primaries. This includes curbing the flow of large sums from AIPAC and other lobby groups to staunchly pro-Israel candidates. Pro-Israel factions inside the party are fiercely resisting these proposals, while the current party establishment is said to be searching for middle ground.

These developments are seen as proof that long-standing rules around supporting Israel within the Democratic camp are evaporating. What used to earn applause—pro-Israel alignment—has now become as painful as holding hot coals. Even if grassroots pressure hasn’t yet eliminated mainstream Democrats’ support for Israel, the coming period will not go smoothly for Israel as before. Meanwhile, the Israel lobby is scrambling to ensure the Democratic Party remains pro-Israel.