A new regional geopolitical axis: Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia

As the international system undergoes the unraveling of the liberal order that was attempted to be constructed in the post–Cold War era, it is evolving into an increasingly uncertain, insecure, and unpredictable structure. Today, global politics is shaped less by shared values and rules and more by power balances, deterrence, and coercive capacity. This picture produces a multilayered global crisis environment in which order-building actors are weakening, while actors that generate crises, suspend the law, and legitimize the use of force are coming to the fore. In many respects, the current situation recalls the fragile geopolitics of the period preceding the First World War.

About five years ago, I discussed this issue with a French politician, and his remarks were striking in terms of understanding today’s situation. I asked him whether the world was returning to pre–World War I conditions and how states might react to such a reality. He offered the following assessment:

“In fact, all states are desperately searching for alliances; everyone is trying to find their own partners in the face of possible risks. And in this regard, the most helpless actors are the European Union states. If you throw a child into the sea, it will try to swim and save itself. If you tie twenty children together and throw them into the sea, each will pull the other down, and they will drown together. The United States has pushed the European Union into this situation. Referring to small member states of the European Union, what kind of experience or accumulation do these states really have that they could manage the world’s largest bloc and derive a foreign policy from it?”

This metaphor starkly reveals the European Union’s lack of strategic autonomy, its fragmented nature, and its limited decision-making capacity in times of crisis. Today, the European Union is unable to produce a shared threat perception or a unified foreign policy; the fact that small and inexperienced actors play a decisive role in decision-making processes further deepens its structural fragility. Just consider a bloc whose rotating presidency can be held by a state such as the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, and assess its global political capacity accordingly.

The disintegration of the global system is not limited to institutional weaknesses alone. Israel’s overt lawlessness and genocidal practices in Gaza have demonstrated that international law has effectively been suspended. While it was being debated whether this lawlessness would remain confined to Palestine, the seizure of the Venezuelan president from his bedroom and his transfer to the United States revealed that state sovereignty and immunity are no longer effectively protected. This development has created a serious environment of insecurity, especially for small and medium-sized states.

This process has also shown that China cannot function as a global balancing hegemonic power against the United States. The Venezuela operation demonstrated that the United States still possesses an unrivaled capacity to use military and political power without seeking international legitimacy.

In this atmosphere of global chaos, Türkiye’s geopolitical position and strategic capacity take on special importance. Located at the intersection of some of the world’s most fragile regions—the Eastern Mediterranean, the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East, and Africa—Türkiye has built strategic resilience over the past fifteen years through investments in defense industry capabilities, infrastructure, military power, and diplomatic reach. This process has transformed Türkiye from an actor merely affected by crises into a regional power capable of managing crises and establishing balance.

During the Syrian civil war, Türkiye’s confrontation with US-centered pressure mechanisms led to serious fractures in diplomatic relations. However, the balancing role displayed in the Karabakh War, support for the legitimate government in Libya, the determination demonstrated through naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the military operations conducted in Syria have shown that Türkiye has overcome this encirclement and reemerged as a central actor. This has prompted many states to reestablish relations with Türkiye.

The genocidal process that began in Gaza has accelerated a visible normalization in Türkiye–Egypt relations, while Türkiye–Saudi Arabia relations have undergone a gradual improvement following the Khashoggi crisis. From the perspective of institutional states, temporary crises tend not to sever relations but instead compel renewed rapprochement in the face of shared threats.

In addition to Israel’s expansionist policies, developments such as the push to recognize Somaliland, the civil war in Sudan, the fragile balance in Libya, and the United Arab Emirates’ aggressive posture in Yemen that undermines Saudi Arabia’s interests are bringing Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia together on a common strategic ground. The rapprochement of these three countries has the potential to generate a new balancing axis for regional stability.

In the long term, this axis is expected to produce concrete outcomes such as the establishment of a lasting state order in Libya, the preservation of territorial integrity in Sudan, the termination of conflicts in Yemen, and the deepening of Türkiye–Egypt cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In conclusion, the current global conjuncture clearly shows that states, regardless of the power they possess, survive through alliances. The Türkiye–Egypt–Saudi Arabia axis is poised to assume a strategic role not only in terms of regional security but also in the search for balance and stability within the global system.

Sun Tzu: “Wars are won or lost through alliances.”