Could sanctions on Russian oil be the key to peace?

In recent weeks, President Trump has taken renewed steps toward ending the war in Ukraine, announcing sanctions against Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Until now, the Trump administration had avoided directly targeting Russia’s energy sector, but the move was foreshadowed by the decision to impose additional tariffs on India. Trump’s criticism of Europe for maintaining energy ties with Russia, along with his call for Türkiye to reduce its own energy trade, signaled a clear intent to increase economic pressure on Moscow. While Trump has said his main goal is to bring Putin to the negotiating table—and has expressed doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions—it appears he now recognizes that Russia has no intention of agreeing to a cease-fire or abandoning its maximalist demands.

TRUMP’S CEASE-FIRE FORMULA

Trump has proposed a cease-fire based on both sides halting hostilities along their current defense lines. This formula would effectively consolidate Russia’s territorial gains and force Ukraine to relinquish the Donbas region. Last week, Trump refused Ukrainian President Zelensky’s request for authorization to strike inside Russia using Tomahawk missiles, suggesting that Trump no longer believes military pressure alone will yield results. Instead, it’s clear he thinks pushing Ukraine to accept its current losses might help persuade Putin. Still, Moscow’s statement reaffirming that the conditions for ending the war had already been defined shows that Russia continues to insist on its most uncompromising terms.

By denying Tomahawk systems to Ukraine and urging Zelensky toward concessions, Trump likely reacted with frustration when Russia responded by attacking Kyiv. The decision to cancel his planned meeting with Putin in Budapest, calling it a “waste of time,” and his subsequent pivot to oil sanctions highlight that efforts for a cease-fire remain premature. Washington’s careful balance—using economic and military pressure while avoiding escalation toward nuclear conflict—combined with Putin’s apparent acceptance of the heavy costs Russia has already borne, have both weakened prospects for peace. Moscow’s refusal to accept any formula that doesn’t secure its wartime objectives—either through conflict or negotiation—remains the main obstacle to Trump’s cease-fire plan.

OIL SANCTIONS

Having failed to win Putin’s cooperation on his cease-fire proposal, Trump turned to economic pressure through oil sanctions. Yet these sanctions are unlikely to be effective unless Washington enforces them aggressively. While the announcement itself is significant—since sanctions remain one of America’s fastest and most direct tools for deterrence and punishment—their success depends on strict monitoring and consistent implementation. History shows that targeted nations often find alternative mechanisms to blunt the full impact of U.S. sanctions. Trump himself has expressed skepticism about their effectiveness, but directly targeting Russian oil could mark a turning point in Washington’s economic pressure strategy—if applied forcefully.

Previous measures, such as capping the price of Russian oil and reducing natural gas imports to protect Europe’s energy markets, did hurt Russia’s economy but failed to bring Putin to the table. Now, Washington’s move to focus on oil sanctions—and the possibility of Europe joining in—carries weight, though it’s unrealistic to assume Moscow is unprepared. By deepening ties with countries like China, Putin has already managed to soften the blow of Western pressure. As seen in the 3.3% spike in global oil prices following the sanctions announcement, any instability in energy markets plays to Russia’s advantage. Putin could also use new diplomatic overtures as a stalling tactic to buy time and adapt further.

A FRAGILE STRATEGY

Since the start of the war, Washington’s biggest weakness has been its inability to integrate economic and military pressure effectively. Driven by the instinct to avoid pushing Russia toward the nuclear brink, the U.S. has failed to find a formula that would either secure a decisive Ukrainian victory or compel Putin to accept lasting peace. The rapid sequence of signals—first hinting at supplying Tomahawk missiles, then floating a meeting with Putin, followed by an immediate cease-fire plan that envisioned Ukraine ceding Donbas—underscored once again that Washington lacks a coherent, unified strategy combining sanctions and military aid.

Moscow’s persistence in holding its ground and its confidence that U.S. pressure will remain either temporary or ineffective is not surprising. If Trump truly hopes to broker peace in Ukraine, a more consistent and sustained approach is needed—one that enforces the oil sanctions rigorously while bolstering Kyiv’s military position just enough to convince Russia it cannot win on the battlefield. As long as Moscow believes it is still making incremental gains, the chances of meaningful peace talks remain slim. Finding a formula that shifts this calculation is Washington’s most crucial challenge—and the key to any lasting peace in Ukraine.