The demographic crisis of the American Dream

The latest U.S. census data show that as of the end of June 2025, population growth has fallen to its lowest level in American history. Since the 1990s in particular, net migration has made a significant contribution to population growth, but the most recent data indicate a sharp decline in net migration. Low birth rates, experienced in many countries around the world, are also being seen in the United States, but this is not the main factor behind the slowdown in population growth. Although population growth in the U.S. has slowed relatively over the past 20–30 years, net migration figures have managed to keep population growth at a relatively healthy level. However, the latest figures show a major decline in net migration, and it is clear that this is the result of harsh measures taken on immigration. Tough steps taken to address America’s border security problems have cast a shadow over the promise of the “American dream,” stripping the country of its appeal as a destination. Moreover, deportation policies pursued against immigrant communities have created an environment in which immigrants do not feel safe. As a result, at a time when hundreds of thousands of immigrants are voluntarily leaving the country, it is clear that the policies of the Trump administration have played a critical role in the decline in population growth.

TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION POLICY

As of mid-2025, the U.S. population growth rate stands at 0.5 percent. This rate represents one of the lowest levels in American history outside the pandemic years, and this growth has occurred entirely thanks to net migration. Since birth and death rates remained at the same level as the previous year, the source of the half-point increase is net migration. This shows that the United States continues to need immigration in order to maintain a healthy level of population growth. In 2024, net migration reached around 2.5–3 million as a result of Biden’s delayed response on border security, but this figure fell by nearly half last year. The main reason for this sharp decline stands out as the Trump administration’s immigration policy. Trump, who rose to power by channeling the reaction of white segments uncomfortable with the country’s increasing diversity, has turned immigration into a tool of domestic politics while disregarding the country’s demographic and economic needs. In Trump’s second term, immigration policy has gone beyond border security rhetoric and reached a point where legal immigration has also become more difficult. Tightened border controls, the removal of temporary protection status for citizens of many countries, the tightening of asylum processes, the slowing down of legal immigration applications, and the imposition of astronomical fees on visas such as the H-1B are also constricting the American labor market. Trump’s policies do not only deter irregular migration; they also negatively affect immigrants who are considering coming legally to work in sectors such as education, healthcare, and technology. For many years, immigration was one of the dynamics that contributed most to American economic power and strengthened the country’s strategic capacity. America’s economic dynamism, innovation, and competitiveness were largely driven by its young and productive immigrant population. Since the 2008 economic crisis, negative attitudes toward immigration—an issue increasingly turned into a tool of political polarization—appear to have peaked under Trump.

AMERICA IS NO LONGER ATTRACTIVE FOR IMMIGRANTS

Under the Trump administration, as the United States rapidly moves toward abandoning its global leadership role, it is also moving away from being a country that attracts the world’s top talent. In this sense, America is losing its soft power and has even begun to lose its educated elite intellectuals and academics to Europe. A country that has been the world’s leading magnet thanks to its research universities, Silicon Valley, immigrant entrepreneurship, multicultural workforce, and ease of doing business is undermining its human capital by pursuing anti-immigrant policies. Examples such as international students and academics being targeted because of their political views on the Palestine issue also point to erosion and regression in principles such as freedom of expression. Moving away from an immigration approach that successfully integrated the world’s best talent into the economy indicates that the decline in net migration is not only a demographic problem but also a source of economic weakness. For Trump’s base, immigration stands out not only as an economic concern but perhaps even more as a cultural and identity issue. These groups, who see themselves as the country’s “true owners,” are motivated by the idea of “taking the country back.” However, it is clear that this approach carries risks in the medium and long term, such as deepening labor shortages, accelerating population aging, and exacerbating economic disparities between states. It is no coincidence that states like California and New York, which contribute the most to the national economy, are also the states that receive the most international immigration. Yet stagnation or even decline in the populations of these states will also negatively affect the national economy. America’s loss of appeal appears likely to increase migration to Canada, Europe, the Gulf, and Asian countries, thereby strengthening those countries’ competitiveness vis-à-vis the United States. It is also well known how much reverse brain drain benefits countries like China. These dynamics indicate that America is no longer an attractive country for immigrants and that this is weakening America’s strategic human capital. In conclusion, the slowdown in America’s population growth and the fact that its main cause is the hardening of immigration policies mean that one of the country’s most important advantages is being sacrificed to domestic politics. Immigration reform efforts discussed for 30 years but never realized have now turned into a discourse in which immigration is associated with crime. Pursuing anti-immigrant policies in an effort to address the pressure of sudden irregular migration creates serious handicaps for a country like the United States, which meets a significant portion of its skilled labor needs through international migration. At a time when the Trump administration is retreating from international leadership while seeking to apply American power in its rawest form, forgetting that this power is not built solely on military and economic strength but also on human capital will mark a critical turning point. Immigration policies that ignore this reality risk both slowing the country’s demographic development and weakening its pool of skilled human resources.