The road from ceasefire to peace in Gaza

Hamas and Israel’s agreement on the first phase of Trump’s peace plan has created a new hope for an end to the two-year war, but it is certain that the road to a lasting peace is full of major challenges.For now, the parties have agreed only on a hostage exchange and Israel’s withdrawal from some parts of Gaza.

Even though ceasefires and prisoner swaps have been declared twice before, Israel resumed its attacks soon afterward.

This time, the Trump administration needs to actively ensure the full implementation of the plan so the same scenario does not repeat.

The fallout from Israel’s strike on Qatar, Türkiye's intense diplomacy, the Palestine meeting that Trump and Arab states pushed at the United Nations, Western states’ recognition of the Palestinian issue, the international attention generated by the Sumud aid flotilla, and Trump’s pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize all influenced the timing of this agreement.

Netanyahu appears to have used pressure from Trump to bring his own government to agree to a ceasefire, but it would not be surprising if, as before, he took advantage of any easing of international pressure to return to conflict.

While carrying out what many call genocide in Gaza over the past two years, Israel has also tried to make the region accept that it could strike any country in the Middle East.

When Netanyahu expanded the Gaza war into Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran and then targeted Hamas in Qatar, he drew the ire of one of America’s most important regional allies and angered Trump.

Arab states, acting together with Türkiye, put intense pressure on Washington to push for an end to the war in Gaza.

It is important not to forget that Türkiye's efforts after the October 7 attacks to rally Arab and Muslim countries to act together contributed to this partnership.

It is also clear that the Gulf states’ reaction — which Trump has been trying to persuade to make large investments in the U.S. — had an effect on the White House.

Israel’s simultaneous push for normalization with Arab states and for near-total operational freedom in the region created a unifying effect among those countries.

The Netanyahu government, which believed it could have its way with America’s power behind it, put Washington in a difficult position by targeting Hamas in Qatar ahead of meetings that would include Trump’s special representative.

Trump’s public displeasure with the strike was expressed, and Netanyahu tried to placate him with flattering appearances on Fox News.

Aware that he should not test Washington’s patience, Netanyahu — knowing he could only persuade his far-right cabinet to accept a ceasefire by leveraging Trump’s pressure — reluctantly agreed to the peace plan.

Support from Türkiye and the Arab states played a critical role in convincing Hamas.

Although negotiators have not yet reached a detailed agreement on the full plan, heavy pressure produced progress toward a ceasefire stage.

Whether the ceasefire holds will depend on follow-up talks in Egypt and on the fulfillment of the agreement’s conditions.

It is clear that Israel will want to stretch any withdrawal from Gaza over a long period, demand a strict disarmament of Hamas, and refuse to allow the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza.

Implementation of the measures set out in Trump’s plan will depend on how much energy Washington is willing to invest in the process going forward.

If Trump senses that pressure from regional states is waning or fails to receive the Nobel Peace Prize he expects, he could lose interest — and that would mean the main actor capable of forcing Israel to negotiate would be less engaged.

Israel has not hesitated in the past to break ceasefires when it served Netanyahu’s political interests.

This time he will be wary of taking steps that would break with Trump, but he will also do everything he can to see the White House lose interest.

For example, if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel can claim the other side scuppered Trump’s plan.

For the peace plan to become a detailed, durable agreement, Trump — the only actor capable of exerting sufficient pressure on Israel — needs to remain committed to the process.

It is not hard to interpret some MAGA figures’ public reaction as a reflection of Trump’s private discomfort.

Commentators such as Tucker Carlson, who accuse Israel of putting Trump in a difficult position and trying to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran, are examples of voices that could say, if talks fail, that Netanyahu sabotaged Trump’s plan.

Among the plan’s most difficult implementation details are Israel’s withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, reforming the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza, and rebuilding Gaza under a council led by Trump and Blair.

Actors capable of persuading both sides on these issues must be involved in the process.

With a ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid, the issue may begin to fade from the top of the global agenda.

Continuous engagement by both Trump and regional partners — including Türkiye — will be essential during negotiations.

Netanyahu, who is willing to regionalize the war for political gain, will not want the negotiation process to lead to a lasting peace.

Despite all the risks and obstacles on the road to peace, even achieving a ceasefire would give Gaza’s civilian population, which has endured one of the largest atrocities of modern history for two years, some much-needed relief.