Türkiye–U.S. Relations Poised for Renewal After Erdoğan–Trump Meeting

The trajectory of Türkiye–U.S. relations has always been shaped by the tone and rapport between the leaders. On Thursday, during President Erdoğan’s meeting with U.S. President Trump, the messages delivered and the warm visuals between the two leaders sent positive signals for Türkiye–U.S. relations. Trump, who repeatedly insisted that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria was Türkiye’s success and showered Erdoğan with praise, clearly signaled he was open to creating a new momentum in bilateral ties in the coming period. Despite being shaken over the past decade by crises and challenges created by regional issues, both leaders recognize that Türkiye–U.S. relations remain critically important. Türkiye, which plays a key role in the trajectory of regional issues such as Syria, Ukraine, Iran and Palestine, also has the potential to act as a game-changer in the U.S.’s struggle with major powers like Russia and China. Strong cooperation on both regional and global issues hinges on the two NATO allies resolving their bilateral problems.

DEFENSE COOPERATION

One of the most important crises in Türkiye–U.S. relations in recent years has been the S-400 issue. In November 2012, citing missiles fired from Syria, Türkiye asked NATO to deploy Patriot systems in areas close to the border. Starting in early 2013, the U.S., the Netherlands and Spain deployed Patriot systems against threats from Syria. When the Obama administration in August 2015 withdrew the U.S. Patriots without consulting Ankara, citing a reduced threat and costs, Türkiye intensified its efforts to meet its air defense needs.

The 2017 agreement with Russia on the S-400 created a crisis area in defense cooperation with the U.S., a NATO ally unwilling to meet Türkiye’s criteria for its air defense needs. The S-400 purchase, which resulted in Türkiye’s removal from the F-35 program and the imposition of sanctions, also strengthened efforts by pro-Israel and pro-Greece lobbies in Congress to block F-35 sales to Türkiye. Allowing these countries to have the F-35 could shift regional power balances to Türkiye’s detriment — preventing that is in Türkiye’s interest.

Trump’s talk of both lifting sanctions and ensuring F-35 sales holds the potential to put Türkiye–U.S. defense cooperation back on track. Trump has the ability to overcome resistance in Congress in Türkiye’s favor, since he can persuade the Republicans who control both chambers. Even if persuasion isn’t possible, Trump, as we’ve seen in other cases, can take steps to carry out defense sales despite Congress. For Türkiye, simultaneously developing its national defense systems while using the F-35 and rejoining its production network would have a transformative effect on bilateral defense relations.

ENERGY COOPERATION

Trump’s demand that Türkiye reduce its Russian energy purchases in return for steps to strengthen defense cooperation can be seen as a far more negotiable approach than the negative stance he’s taken toward India. Pushing Europe, India and China to cut Russian energy purchases to bring Moscow to the table over Ukraine, Trump has similar expectations from Türkiye but understands he cannot do this through threats and pressure. He knows that negotiating with Erdoğan and reaching agreements that safeguard mutual interests will be more productive. The 20-year LNG agreement signed with the U.S. serves Türkiye’s effort to diversify its energy supplies. The $43 billion deal stands out as a step that both increases trade volume with the U.S. — something Trump values — and reduces Türkiye’s dependence on Russian energy sources.

Many of Türkiye’s moves in the energy sphere aim to guarantee both diversity and security of supply. The LNG agreement not only meets both criteria but also grabs Trump’s attention as proof of Türkiye’s determination to strengthen relations with the U.S. Aware that Türkiye cannot halt all oil and gas purchases from Russia, Trump’s “reduction” request is more reasonable. Türkiye has long shown strong performance in managing problematic areas in its relations with Russia. Even in the Ukraine issue, while standing by Ukraine’s sovereignty and NATO membership, Türkiye continued trade with Russia without cutting ties completely. By working hard for a diplomatic solution, Türkiye enabled agreements like prisoner swaps and grain exports. A relative decrease in the energy trade — which accounts for a significant share of Türkiye–Russia commerce — would not only strengthen relations with the U.S. but also contribute to resolving the Ukraine issue.

The timing of President Erdoğan’s meeting with Trump to pave the way for critical moves in both defense and energy is also significant. If the congressional balance in the U.S. shifts toward the Democrats in the November 2026 midterms, Trump’s hand will be weakened. Until then, there is an opportunity for Türkiye to have sanctions lifted and reset defense relations during Trump’s strongest period. This would also help create partnerships enabling Turkish and American firms to compete for projects within Europe’s defense spending. Expanding energy cooperation would not only serve Türkiye’s strategic interests but also ensure energy diversity and security. Achieving critical progress in these two areas through the Erdoğan–Trump meeting would mark a new turning point in Türkiye–U.S. relations.