A Breakthrough Is On The Horizon In Syria

In my previous column, I titled it “The sea has run out for Israel and the SDF terrorist organization.” The implication was this: the new situation is forcing these two destabilizing actors to retreat from their regional ambitions and goals.This time I’m saying, “Land in sight in Syria.” Because there are major developments in the SDF’s integration into Damascus. I’ll explain, but first, some points need to be underlined.

Since October 7, I’ve kept repeating: there are two axes in the region. One axis seeks stability to protect its vital interests and unlock its potential. This is the axis of peace, and Türkiye belongs here. Regional chaos and disorder have put a huge economic burden on Ankara’s shoulders, created security problems, and fueled war, conflict, and migration. In this context… the Iraq Development Road, the Zangezur Corridor, stability in Syria, the two-state solution for Palestine, the Ukraine peace initiative… all are part of the search for stability.

The opposing axis is Israel. Israel’s security depends on the weakness and chaos of its neighbors. At times, the U.S. and Iran have also fed this axis through their actions. What we’ve witnessed in recent years is essentially the power struggle between these two axes. That’s where the deep conflict lies.

ISRAEL’S RETREAT

After October 7, Israel came forward with maximalist demands, but at this point it has been forced to sit at the table with Hamas. It hasn’t abandoned its “grand” objectives. But it is in retreat. So what changed the tide? First, Israel has been condemned as a perpetrator of genocide in global public opinion and on the streets of the world. This is the deepest isolation in its history. Second, it has become clear Hamas cannot be eliminated by military means. Third, Israel’s targeting of Doha (and Syria) created a crisis of confidence in the Gulf, endangering the Abraham Accords and the new regional architecture that the U.S. has been carefully nurturing.

Fourth, the region needed an “honorable exit.” Ankara opened that path through its diplomacy and intelligence efforts. After October 7, the establishment of the Contact Group, rallying and activating regional countries, anchoring countries like Saudi Arabia to the two-state solution perspective, orchestrating the September 23 U.N. meeting with eight countries and the U.S., keeping Trump “on a single line,” and intelligence diplomacy brought all actors to the table in Egypt.

The multilateral document signed in Egypt—although not ideal in every respect—represents a declaration of intent to preserve peace in the region. The first article of the Trump plan, namely the ceasefire and the release of hostages, came into effect yesterday. I call this a “live plan.” The general framework is ready, but negotiations over the details are ongoing. Everything can change at any moment. (For example, the plane carrying President Erdoğan passed over the runway before landing in Egypt, waiting until it was confirmed that Netanyahu would not attend the summit. That’s how sensitive and volatile the process is.) There are articles that Hamas and Israel both oppose. Israel’s complete withdrawal, Gaza’s future, Hamas’s disarmament, the Trump-backed international body, and the international peacekeeping force remain contentious. With a declaration of intent signed by 20 countries, a middle ground must be found.

But it must be stressed: Israel agreeing to a ceasefire with Hamas and accepting the guarantees of four countries including Türkiye marks a historic turning point. It’s a major strategic gain. Even if Israel breaks the ceasefire tomorrow, the new struggle will begin from this position. Nothing in the Palestinian issue will ever be the same again.

I’ve said from the start… the terrorist SDF wanted to see which way regional tensions would move before complying with the March 10 agreement. They waited for Israel to weaken Syria. Sweida was critical in this. But when Damascus formally requested military support from Ankara, when the Jordan-U.S.-Syria roadmap on Sweida was announced, when President Erdoğan met Trump in Washington, and when Israel stumbled in Gaza… the picture began to clear.

You’ve seen the diplomatic traffic. Trump’s envoy Barrack and CENTCOM Commander Cooper first went to northern Syria, then to Damascus to meet SDF ringleader Mazloum Abdi. Later, Syrian Foreign Minister Shaybani came to Ankara to meet Minister Fidan. Then on Sunday, Ankara hosted a summit attended by foreign and defense ministers and intelligence chiefs. The likely topics were Syria’s security, stability, and territorial integrity; a broad security agreement between Ankara and Damascus; large-scale training of the Syrian army; and strengthening Syria’s military capacity.

It’s well known Ankara wants the SDF to disarm and integrate into Damascus. Damascus holds the same position. The SDF, on the other hand, wants to join the Syrian army at a corps level, as a regional bloc, without disarming—alongside its demands for decentralization and constitutional guarantees.

After his meeting with Shara, SDF leader Mazloum Abdi said, “We will integrate into the Syrian army. The process will officially begin soon.” He also gave an interesting piece of information that Damascus did not deny: “The SDF will fight ISIS across all of Syria.” So how will that work when Damascus rejects “bloc integration” and refuses to budge?

Abdi’s emphasis on “all of Syria” suggests to me that an interim formula has been found that doesn’t fully satisfy either side (Damascus and the SDF) but bridges their positions. How will this work? We’ll have to wait and see. What are the pros and cons? We’ll be talking about it a lot more. And let’s note: any positive development here will accelerate the process of a terror-free Türkiye.