Who’s opposing Turkish presence in Gaza — and why?

We’ve reached a critical crossroads — one that will shape the future of Gaza and Palestine, and with it, the balance of power across the wider region. The key question now: will Turkish troops be deployed in Gaza to help sustain the ceasefire? Turkey’s hand is strong — but Netanyahu isn’t standing still either. So what’s next? Let’s first look at what’s been happening, the “plan” emerging in Israel, the PR campaign against Türkiye, and finally, the likely outcome expected early next week.

TÜRKİYE: BOTH GUARANTOR AND CONTENDER

When President Erdoğan joined three other leaders in Egypt on October 13 to sign a declaration of intent for Middle East peace, many were skeptical. Israel’s record, its tendency to break ceasefires, and the gaps in the agreement all raised doubts. Some saw it as a concession to Israel. I saw it differently — as a “gained position” (for details, see Land in Sight in Syria, October 14). Later debates made it clear that Israel, too, viewed it this way.

By signing that declaration, Türkiye positioned itself as a guarantor state — which naturally raised expectations that Turkish troops might be deployed in Gaza. During his visit to Tel Aviv to discourage Israeli attempts to undermine the ceasefire, U.S. Vice President Vance outlined the next steps: Hamas disarming, the deployment of an International Stabilization Force in Gaza, and the establishment of an alternative administration.

A key note: while the dynamics at the UN may complicate decision-making, a Security Council resolution for such an international force will likely be passed — and Türkiye supports that. It would make the ceasefire and process somewhat predictable. But even with such a resolution, it won’t be a UN peacekeeping mission per se.

Background: Israel has given a green light to two groups of countries. First, those it has maintained relations with since October 7 — namely, the UAE and Egypt. Second, countries whose forces would be predominantly Muslim, but from outside the region. Here, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan stand out. Türkiye fits neither category.

FIVE REASONS BEHIND ISRAEL’S POSITION

The ultra-radical Zionists who make up a major part of Israel’s government are on edge — and pressuring Netanyahu hard. Recently, Israeli opposition parties told the prime minister two things: You’ve put yourself under U.S. protection. And you’re letting Türkiye and Qatar into Gaza.

There are several reasons Israel sees a Turkish presence in Gaza as a “red line.”

Israel’s main goal is to de-Arabize Palestine — to drive out its population. A Turkish presence would prevent that.

Maintaining a Palestinian presence keeps the two-state solution alive.

Türkiye’s presence in Gaza would mean military and diplomatic power on the ground to protect Palestinian rights.

For Israel, which has been trying to approach Türkiye’s borders through the SDF, having Turkish troops next door is a nightmare.

It would shatter Israel’s pursuit of regional hegemony.

KEEP TÜRKİYE OUT, BRING IN 100,000 ZIONISTS

That’s why Tel Aviv is trying to block Türkiye’s participation in the international force. Based on what’s being written in the Israeli media, the radicals’ goals can be summed up as follows:

Keep Türkiye away from both the table and the field.

To undermine a future Palestinian state, increase the Jewish population in the West Bank (they’re openly talking about relocating 100,000 young couples there within two years; the Israeli parliament’s approval of the West Bank annexation bill fits this plan).

If possible, break the ceasefire altogether.

They’ve also launched a full-scale media campaign to keep Türkiye out of Gaza — aiming to tarnish its image and stir “concerns” among Gulf states. We’re already seeing Israel-approved talking points circulating in global media, claiming Türkiye seeks “regional hegemony,” invoking its “Ottoman past,” and insisting that a “Sunni bloc” led by Türkiye is replacing the Shia axis. These narratives are meant to spook not just the West, but also the Gulf.

WHAT WILL THE GULF DO?

Judging by recent statements, Gulf countries — especially Saudi Arabia (excluding Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, which President Erdoğan recently visited) — seem to be acting in partial coordination with Israel under U.S. alignment. Trump’s remark that “some of our Middle East allies told me they’d welcome a chance to enter Gaza with full force if Hamas keeps violating the agreement” was telling. Vice President Vance’s follow-up was even more so: “Israel and some Gulf countries are impatient when it comes to Hamas — they need to be more flexible.”

WILL TURKISH TROOPS ENTER GAZA?

Vice President Vance said, “We’re not going to pressure Israel on which foreign forces will come in.” Then he added, “Everyone has a role to play. And so far, the Turks have played a constructive one.” A statement that could be read either way.

So, how does Ankara see it?

1. What matters most isn’t whether Türkiye sends troops — it’s that the ceasefire holds and peace returns to the region. As one of the four guarantor states from the Cairo declaration, Ankara already plays a critical role.
2. Türkiye naturally wants to be present in Gaza. All parties are aware of this intent — and Ankara has shown clear resolve.
3. Israel is trying to block it. That’s expected. But it likely won’t succeed.
4. Whether Turkish troops will indeed go to Gaza should become clear early next week.