Trump’s Big Prize in Ukraine: The Montreux Convention

There’s an interesting dynamic with Trump. Aside from Israel and its regional allies, he’s ignoring anyone who worked with Biden—including those involved in the Ukraine-Russia war.

Take Poland’s president, for example—the only European leader who pledged increased defense spending. Trump made him wait a long time before their meeting, and when it finally happened, it lasted just ten minutes.

I also see Elon Musk’s influence in reshaping Europe’s political landscape as part of this same strategy. If the U.S. succeeds in steering Europe in its desired direction, there are countless possible scenarios for how the story could unfold.

Under these circumstances, discussions about ending the Ukraine-Russia war are shifting. Ukraine is no longer at the negotiating table—it’s on the menu.

The British recently leaked that Trump wants Ukraine’s assets. When Iraq’s resources were plundered, the British had their share. But what Trump is eyeing in Ukraine? Almost everything—from rare earth elements to its ports.

And hidden within this broad agenda is something even bigger. But before we get to that, let’s talk about the "mid-sized prize."

It lies beneath the sea.

I stand by my argument from the very start of the war: This conflict is about Ukraine’s energy reserves in the Black Sea.

Türkiye’s discovery and development of Black Sea energy resources put a spotlight on the region. After Türkiye, Ukraine has the largest exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea. Romania has already confirmed energy reserves in its own waters.

With its fair approach, energy fleet, engineering expertise, and military strength, Türkiye became a reliable partner for regional countries, turning potential into reality.

Just like in Somalia today, Ukraine could have explored its resources in partnership with Türkiye. If Ukraine, rich in energy potential, had joined the EU, Europe’s dependence on Russian energy might have ended. But that possibility was a threat to both Russia and the U.S., which benefits from Europe’s dependence.

That’s how Ukraine was devastated. Even if Russia keeps only Crimea, Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone is being erased. That’s Putin’s prize—he won’t touch the energy reserves but will keep Europe reliant on him.

Now, let’s say Ukraine retains full control of its economic zone. That would make its energy reserves Trump’s “mid-sized prize.”

No one knows exactly what deals the Russians and Americans are making behind the scenes, but for Europe, the stakes are extremely high.

However, the country most directly affected is Türkiye. If America’s demands are really what the British leaked, then Russia must be furious. The significance of the umbrella held over Zelensky might be far greater than it seems.

If the U.S. takes control of Ukraine’s ports, no country will feel the impact more than Türkiye. That’s because the biggest prize—the one lurking beneath all of this—is the Montreux Convention.

If Ukraine’s ports fall into U.S. hands, their status could change. And if that means U.S. warships entering the Black Sea, it means instability.

Instability in the Black Sea would threaten not just Türkiye’s energy independence but also its potential as an energy hub. Under these circumstances, Montreux is a key geoeconomic tool for Türkiye.

If Russia fails to see the bigger picture in the Ukraine-Russia peace process, Türkiye will have to establish its own equation to avoid the costs of instability. That’s likely the reason behind Lavrov’s visit yesterday.

Now, on top of the Gaza crisis, Türkiye is moving toward an engagement with Trump.

It’s like those first-contact moments in alien movies—two possible scenarios: either "Hello, Earthlings, we come in peace," or the visitor issues a powerful threat.

Just like that, Trump is approaching our world as an “alien.” The strength of Türkiye’s internal front will shape what comes next.