Fitch expects Strait of Hormuz reopening in early 2027

Fitch Ratings said Monday its base case assumes a durable agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be reached in the first quarter of 2027, as sovereign credit ratings across the Middle East and North Africa remain resilient to the US-Iran war. Higher oil prices, recovering oil exports and large financial buffers have supported sovereign credit profiles, the rating agency said in a commentary accompanying its latest regional peer credit analysis. Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Iraq have borne the brunt of the conflict, facing sporadic attacks from Iran and regional proxies alongside disruptions to the main route for their hydrocarbon exports.

Regional resilience offsets war impact

Elsewhere in the region, factors including strong external support for Egypt and Jordan, rapid tourism growth in Egypt and healthy foreign direct investment in Morocco have helped offset the impact of higher oil prices. Modest fiscal reforms have also helped stabilize debt-to-GDP ratios, although authorities remain mindful of pressures on social stability, Fitch said. The region's average sovereign rating has remained unchanged over the past 12 months, with an upgrade for Oman and a downgrade for Bahrain both preceding the war.

Negative outlooks persist for Qatar, Israel

Three sovereigns carry negative outlooks while none holds a positive outlook, marking the weakest balance since late 2021. Negative outlooks for Qatar and Ras al Khaimah reflect war-related risks, with both recently removed from negative rating watches imposed at the height of hostilities. Qatar's outlook reflects its inability to export liquefied natural gas because of disruption in the strait, while Ras al Khaimah faces risks to a potentially transformative tourism project that supported an earlier upgrade. Israel also retains a negative outlook, reflecting an expected continued increase in public debt and war-related risks to growth and public finances.