Jet fuel prices to take months to normalize even if Hormuz reopens

The head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) cautioned Wednesday that jet fuel markets will require months to stabilize, even if the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments—reopens and remains accessible. Speaking at the IATA World Data Symposium in Singapore, the director general noted that while crude oil prices have fallen approximately 15% following recent ceasefire announcements, the restoration of global jet fuel and other refined product supplies will take considerably more time. The Middle East serves as an indispensable link in the global supply chain, meaning recovery cannot be measured in weeks despite early positive price signals.

Ticket prices to remain under pressure

The IATA chief recalled that there exists an almost direct correlation between oil prices and airline ticket prices. The persistent challenge for the aviation industry, he explained, is the lag between pricing actions in energy markets and their reflection in actual airline revenues. Even with the Strait open, refining capacity, logistics, and supply chains disrupted by weeks of conflict will take time to return to pre-war functionality.

Türkiye’s aviation sector watches closely

For Türkiye, whose national carrier Turkish Airlines operates one of the world’s largest networks and whose tourism industry relies heavily on affordable air travel, prolonged high jet fuel prices would strain both airlines and consumers. Ankara has welcomed the two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan but continues to push for a permanent end to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Turkish officials have emphasized that even temporary truces are insufficient to reverse the economic damage already inflicted on global energy and transportation markets.