Shell beats Q1 forecasts as Iran war lifts oil prices

Shell on Thursday reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, with the ongoing war against Iran pushing crude and natural gas prices sharply upward and roiling global energy supplies.

Earnings top analyst forecasts

The London-based energy major posted adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion for the January-March period, exceeding a company-compiled analyst consensus of $6.36 billion. The figure also rose from $5.58 billion in the same quarter last year and $3.26 billion in the final three months of 2025. “Shell delivered strong results enabled by our relentless focus on operational performance in a quarter marked by unprecedented disruption in global energy markets,” CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement.

Dividend hike and buyback adjustment

Shell announced it would reduce the pace of its quarterly share buyback program to $3 billion from $3.5 billion, while increasing its dividend by 5% to $0.3906 per share. The company’s net debt stood at $52.6 billion at the end of the first quarter, compared with $45.7 billion at the close of 2025.

Conflict-driven price surge

Energy majors have reaped significant gains from a roughly 40% climb in oil prices since the US and Israeli-led war against Iran began on February 28, with disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz intensifying supply fears. Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate fell sharply in the previous session, however, amid hopes for a possible end to the conflict. Türkiye, heavily dependent on energy imports, continues to monitor these price swings closely, as higher fuel costs directly impact its current account deficit and inflation outlook.

Canadian acquisition strengthens resource base

The earnings announcement followed Shell’s $16.4 billion agreement to buy Canadian energy firm ARC Resources, which focuses on the Montney shale basin in British Columbia and Alberta. Sawan described ARC as a “high-quality, low-cost and top quartile low carbon intensity producer” that would strengthen Shell’s resource base for decades. Shell’s London-listed shares have risen approximately 17% since the start of the year.