Critical minerals reshape trade as supply risks mount: UNCTAD
UNCTAD said on Friday that surging demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy is fundamentally reshaping global trade flows around critical minerals, warning that highly concentrated supply chains and a wave of new export restrictions risk fragmenting international markets and raising costs.
The UN Trade and Development agency said in its June 2026 Global Trade Update that copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements have become central to industrial policy and geopolitical competition as global demand rises for clean energy, electrification and digital technologies.
Supply concentration and demand surge
Demand for lithium is projected to grow by more than 350% by 2040, while graphite demand could rise by more than 130%, according to the agency. Supply chains remain highly concentrated — the Democratic Republic of Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production in 2025, while China produced 78% of the world’s natural graphite. Australia, Chile and China together produced more than 70% of global lithium, with Beijing also dominating the refining of several critical minerals.
Trade restrictions and international agreements
As demand rises and supply risks grow, governments are increasingly using trade policy to secure access to critical minerals and build domestic capacity. Since 2020, nearly 100 export-related measures have been introduced on critical minerals, including licensing requirements, export taxes and export bans, UNCTAD said. International partnerships have also expanded rapidly, with the agency identifying 73 international agreements and partnership instruments, 58 of them signed after 2022.
Fragmentation risks and policy coordination
The agency warned that developing countries could attract investment and move up the value chain through these partnerships, but noted that many agreements still focus heavily on extraction. UNCTAD cautioned against the risk of a fragmented system of overlapping rules and standards as more countries compete for access, saying such fragmentation could raise costs and complicate investment decisions. The agency called for a more coordinated approach to keep critical mineral trade open and development-oriented, arguing that current policy choices would determine whether these resources drive fragmentation or foster resilient global cooperation.
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