Drought, conflict may push 1M more Somalians into critical food insecurity, warns WFP

Drought, conflict, and high food prices might push another one million Somalians into crisis levels of food insecurity in the coming months, warned the World Food Program on Tuesday.

"The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analysis shows that 3.4 million people are already experiencing crisis-levels of hunger or worse. This number is projected to rise to 4.4 million, which is almost one in every four people in Somalia, between April and June 2025, when below-average rains are forecast, potentially creating drought conditions," WFP's director of food security and nutrition analysis, Jean-Martin Bauer, told a UN briefing in Geneva.

Underlining that in late 2022, Somalia was brought to the brink of famine by "the longest drought in recorded history" as back-to-back failed rainy seasons devastated the country, Bauer said a massive scale-up of humanitarian assistance from the World Food Program and its partners helped avert famine.

"Now hunger is rising again as another drought looms," Bauer warned.

The food security analysis findings confirm that the erratic rainy season from October to December 2024 led to low crop yields, rapid depletion of pasture, and dwindling water sources, he said, adding that food production in 2024 was 45% below the long-term average.

"Around 1.7 million children under the age of five are expected to face acute malnutrition through December 2025. Of those, 466,000 face severe acute malnutrition," he said. "Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the total malnutrition burden is concentrated in southern Somalia, where drought conditions and insecurity are the worst."

The hardest-hit households include those with low agricultural yields who have depleted their food stocks, internally displaced persons, and pastoralists with limited livestock and below-average earnings from livestock sales, he explained.

Starting in April, the World Food Program will support 820,000 vulnerable people per month with food and cash assistance, down from a peak of 2.2 million per month in 2024.

The 2025 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, which calls for $1.42 billion, is currently only 12.4% funded, Bauer noted.