Fidan's calculated silence: Strategic ambiguity and Türkiye's nuclear threshold

In the luminous glare of television studios, silence can sometimes articulate what thousands of words cannot. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's measured pause when questioned about Türkiye's potential nuclear weapons status represents far more than an unanswered query. It constitutes a sophisticated diplomatic signal—a deliberate embrace of "strategic ambiguity" that positions Ankara's evolving defense posture at the threshold of existential deterrence without crossing into overt declaration.

The Doctrine of Calculated Uncertainty

International relations theory defines strategic ambiguity as a state's deliberate cultivation of uncertainty regarding its military capabilities or red lines. Israel's amimut doctrine remains the paradigm: neither confirming nor credibly denying nuclear arms capacity, thereby securing deterrent effect while avoiding legal accountability under non-proliferation regimes. This conscious opacity forces potential adversaries to calculate worst-case scenarios, constraining their operational freedom more effectively than explicit threats. Fidan's silence suggests Ankara has internalized this calculus, recognizing that ambiguous capacity generates more strategic leverage than declared capability.

Threshold Status as Geopolitical Imperative

Türkiye's unique geopolitical coordinates—situated at the intersection of multiple nuclear powers and regional crises—render reliance on extended deterrence increasingly untenable. The credibility of alliance-based security guarantees faces mounting skepticism amid global realignments. Strategic ambiguity offers Ankara a third path: cultivating threshold state status without formally abrogating the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This posture transforms Türkiye's indigenous defense ecosystem—unmanned combat aerial vehicles, ballistic missile programs, space technologies—into components of a comprehensive deterrence architecture whose ultimate contours remain deliberately undefined.

The Strategic Logic of Non-Declaration

Declared nuclear capability invites preemptive counter-proliferation pressures, comprehensive sanctions, and diplomatic isolation. Ambiguous threshold status enables Ankara to preserve strategic optionality while avoiding these costs. It signals to regional actors and global powers alike that Türkiye possesses both the technical capacity and the political will to cross the nuclear threshold should existential threats materialize. Fidan's silence thus constitutes not evasion but articulation—a statement that Türkiye's sovereign calculus now operates beyond frameworks requiring external validation. In an increasingly anarchic international system, the power to define one's own red lines may represent sovereignty's ultimate expression.