Amid Middle East energy crisis, Türkiye's strategic diversification shields its supply

The war that broke out in the Middle East on February 28, when the Israeli–US coalition launched its attack on Iran, inflicted severe damage on critical energy infrastructure throughout the region. Oil and natural gas fields, LNG facilities, refineries, oil tankers, petroleum export terminals, ports, thermal power plants, and even nuclear power plants became targets. The Middle East hosts around 50% of the world's proven oil reserves and accounts for roughly 30% of global oil production. Before the conflict, 35% of daily global oil shipments and 20% of LNG trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure plunged the world into a deep energy crisis.

Global price shock

In the month after the Israeli–US coalition began its strikes on Iran, the price of Brent crude surged by roughly 55%, while European gas prices jumped by 60%. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which moved to release 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, called it "the worst energy crisis in history." Steep gasoline price hikes hit countries around the world, and governments imposed caps on fuel sales.

Türkiye's energy supply

Natural gas accounts for roughly a quarter of Türkiye's primary energy consumption and electricity generation. As of 2026, Türkiye imports pipeline gas from three countries and LNG from more than ten. Crucially, Gulf LNG exporters such as Qatar, Oman, and the UAE are absent from Türkiye's supplier list, shielding the country from supply disruptions originating in the conflict zone. If pipeline flows from Iran—which account for 13% of Türkiye's gas imports—were permanently severed, the shortfall could be compensated through pipeline gas from Russia and Azerbaijan, LNG imports, and draws from underground storage. The Tuz Gölü and Silivri underground storage facilities have a combined capacity of 6.3 billion cubic meters, covering more than 10% of annual consumption.

Domestic production and infrastructure

Türkiye produces around 10 million cubic meters of gas per day from the Sakarya Gas Field in the Black Sea, with plans to double that output. The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and TurkStream, with combined capacity approaching 50 billion cubic meters, play a critical role in Türkiye's and Europe's energy security. With two onshore LNG terminals and three Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs), Türkiye's daily LNG regasification capacity exceeds 160 million cubic meters. Türkiye comfortably meets its annual gas consumption of 60 billion cubic meters and has begun supplying gas to neighboring countries such as Bulgaria.

Oil diversification

As of 2026, Türkiye sources its crude oil and petroleum products—accounting for a third of its primary energy consumption—from 20 different supplier countries. The only supplier directly in the crisis zone is Saudi Arabia, with a 9% share. The Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) now produces over 80,000 barrels per day from the Gabar oil field, with further increases anticipated. TPAO is poised to carry out exploration activities in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Somalia, Afghanistan, and Libya.

Nuclear and renewables

The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, with 4,800 megawatts capacity, is expected to cover around 10% of Türkiye's electricity demand. New nuclear projects planned for Sinop and Thrace are likely to gain momentum, with the goal of reaching 20,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050. Renewables now make up more than 60% of Türkiye's total installed power capacity, which reached 124,000 megawatts in 2026, with solar and wind accounting for a third. Estimated reserves of around 700 million tons of rare earth elements strengthen Türkiye's geoeconomic position in the energy transition.

Turning crisis into opportunity

As conflicts destabilize northern and southern energy routes, a window of opportunity is opening for alternative corridors running through Türkiye. The 2026–2030 period could give Türkiye the momentum to fulfill its goal of becoming a "central country in energy" and a "regional hub," leveraging proactive energy diplomacy to route Turkmen gas to Europe, reinforce the Middle Corridor and Zangezur Corridor, and cap dependence on any single supplier below 30%.