Bangladesh braces for high-stakes election amid violence, polarization and reform debate

Bangladesh is approaching a crucial general election on February 12 amid heightened political tension, deep societal polarization, and persistent fears of violence. This will be the first national vote since the mass uprising in 2024 that ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The election is being conducted under an interim administration, with more than 127 million voters eligible to cast ballots—an increase from 119.6 million in the last election.

A Fractured Political Landscape

The political field is dominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, and the newly formed National Citizens Party (NCP), which emerged from the student-led July Uprising. Hasina’s Awami League has been barred from participating. These once-united opposition forces are now rivals, transforming the election into a contest not only for parliamentary control but also over the country's reform agenda. Voters will simultaneously decide on constitutional reforms designed to curb executive power and restructure key state institutions.

Election Violence and Institutional Weakness

According to local human rights group Ain o Salish Kendra, 401 incidents of political violence occurred in 2024, resulting in 102 deaths and 4,744 injuries. Since the election schedule was announced in December, at least 16 political figures have been killed. Analysts point to ideological rivalries, political polarization, and a weakened justice system as key drivers of the unrest. Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group noted that ineffective legal structures and a culture of impunity incentivize political violence.

Pro-Reform vs Status-Quo Divide

The election has sharpened a divide between pro-reform forces, led by Jamaat and the NCP, and the more cautious BNP, which is seen as reluctant to embrace sweeping changes. This split is reflected in increasingly hostile rhetoric between the parties. At the same time, concerns remain about administrative readiness and the neutrality of officials appointed under the previous government.

Regional Dynamics and Media Influence

Analysts also highlight the role of media in shaping the campaign, with many outlets openly taking sides. Regional tensions, particularly regarding India's perceived influence, add another layer of complexity. Despite the risks, observers emphasize that the election is essential for Bangladesh's political future, though the incoming government will face significant challenges including economic recovery and managing international relations.