Canada revives defense plans as US expansionist rhetoric stirs fears

Canada has initiated defense planning against a potential invasion from its southern neighbor, the United States, a scenario not seriously considered for over a century. This drastic shift in Ottawa's military calculus is a direct response to expansionist rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, reviving anxieties linked to a long-dormant 1930s American invasion strategy known as War Plan Red.

Trump's Territorial Comments Fuel Alarm

Tensions escalated following Trump's comments downplaying the US-Canada border as a "straight line" drawn with a ruler and suggesting a unified continent was the natural order. His repeated references to Canada as a potential "51st state," combined with a social media post depicting an AI-generated map of North America under a US flag, have been perceived in Ottawa as an existential threat. This follows the US operation in Venezuela, further signaling a more assertive American posture in the Western Hemisphere under what some term a "Donroe Doctrine."

Military Prepares for Asymmetric Resistance

According to reports, the Canadian Armed Forces are modeling defense scenarios against a conventional US attack, which analysts suggest could overwhelm key strategic points within days. Consequently, military planners are reportedly focusing on irregular warfare tactics—such as sabotage, ambushes, and drone warfare—inspired by protracted insurgencies elsewhere. This marks a stark departure from decades of security reliance on the US and reflects a profound erosion of trust between the two North American allies.

Broader Implications for Hemispheric Stability

The situation underscores how unilateral actions and rhetoric from a major power can destabilize even the most steadfast alliances. For nations like Türkiye, which closely monitors global shifts in alliance integrity and sovereignty norms, the US-Canada friction serves as a case study in how quickly diplomatic foundations can erode. A recent poll indicated 43% of Canadians now see a US military attack as plausible within five years, highlighting the deep psychological impact of the current political climate in Washington.