Elon Musk warns US could 'lose next war very badly' without military overhaul

Elon Musk, tech billionaire appointed by US President Donald Trump to oversee government efficiency, warned that Washington risks losing the next war unless its weapons programs are completely overhauled, calling for "immediate and dramatic changes" in military strategy.

“American weapons programs need to be completely redone,” Musk said Thursday on X. “The current strategy is to build a small number of weapons at a high price to fight yesterday's war. Unless there are immediate and dramatic changes made, America will lose the next war very badly.”

Musk's comments followed the release of his August 2024 interview at the West Point US Military Academy on Thursday, where he discussed the future of warfare, emphasizing the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and drones.

- AI, drones reshaping modern warfare

In the interview, Musk stressed that countries often prepare for past conflicts instead of anticipating future threats. He cited World War I tactics resembling those from the Napoleonic era as an example. “It's hard to change,” he said, urging a shift in mindset to adapt to evolving warfare dynamics.

He identified AI and drones as the most significant forces in modern conflict. “The current war in Ukraine is very much a drone war already,” Musk noted, stressing that future battles will likely rely on unmanned systems, making front-line deployments too dangerous for humans.

Musk also criticized the US for its slow drone production rate, despite technological advancements. "I think that's going to be the biggest challenge, ... it can scale but it is not currently scaling," he said, predicting that human-piloted fighter jets are nearing obsolescence.

- AI risks, 'Terminator' scenario

While advocating for AI in military operations, Musk expressed concerns about its risks, referencing the "Terminator" scenario. “I do worry about the existential risk of AI,” he said, cautioning against unchecked development of autonomous weapons.

Musk, the owner of X, Tesla, and SpaceX, also underscored the importance of secure space-based communications, such as his own satellite internet constellation Starlink, for modern warfare, and emphasized that new technologies must be rigorously tested before widespread deployment.

Musk highlighted curiosity as the most vital trait for future military leaders, encouraging continuous learning and critical thinking to navigate the complexities of modern warfare.