Eyes on the table, hands on the trigger

The temporary ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is already showing deep fractures, with fundamental disagreements over Lebanon, Iran’s right to uranium enrichment and the management of the Strait of Hormuz threatening to derail the process before Saturday’s critical face‑to‑face meeting in Islamabad. While the US insists the truce does not cover Lebanon, Iran considers continued Israeli strikes on its neighbour a blatant violation. Tehran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Said Khatibzadeh revealed that Iran had been prepared to respond to a ceasefire breach on the night of 8 April, but Pakistan intervened to save the agreement.

Three Red Lines from Washington

President Donald Trump has laid down three non‑negotiable demands: an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and continued US military presence in the region until a final deal is implemented. “America is back,” Trump warned, adding that failure to reach an agreement would lead to inevitable escalation. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who is expected to lead Tehran’s delegation, countered that the right to enrichment is already enshrined in the sixth article of the ceasefire framework and is non‑negotiable. Meanwhile, only two ships have transited the strait in the 48 hours since the truce was announced, and Iran insists that full reopening depends on a ceasefire in Lebanon and continued Iranian control over navigation.

Tehran signals caution and readiness

Iranian officials have adopted a cautious yet firm tone. President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized Israeli actions in Lebanon, warning that such moves could undermine diplomatic efforts. “Our fingers remain on the trigger,” he said, reaffirming Iran’s support for its regional allies. Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also stressed that Lebanon and allied groups are integral to any ceasefire framework, while military officials indicated preparedness for prolonged conflict if talks collapse.

Nuclear tensions resurface

Disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program remain a central obstacle. US officials have reiterated that uranium enrichment is a non-negotiable red line, a position firmly rejected by Tehran. Iranian authorities insist that enrichment rights are part of the ceasefire framework, further complicating efforts to find common ground ahead of the Islamabad meeting.

Strait of Hormuz adds economic pressure

Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to impact global trade. More than a month of restricted access has disrupted energy flows, with only limited vessel movement reported since the ceasefire began. The US has called for the immediate reopening of the critical waterway, while Iran links access to broader conditions, including developments in Lebanon. Reports indicate that hundreds of ships remain in queue, highlighting the economic stakes.

Israel wants it to fail

Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli publicly called the ceasefire a mistake and estimated its chance of surviving at only 50 percent, reflecting Tel Aviv’s interest in seeing the negotiations fail. Israeli media have noted that the 40‑day war against Iran has cost between $16.2 billion and $19.4 billion, making it the most expensive military campaign in the country’s history.

It's all or nothing

In light of all these developments, eyes are now on the negotiations for lasting peace, scheduled to begin on April 11. However, the fact that the parties are preparing to sit at the table with different agendas and mutual distrust reveals that the success of the negotiations depends on a fragile foundation. The picture that will emerge at the table on Saturday is expected to mean "it's all or nothing." On the Iranian side, Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi will also be in the delegation. On the US side, Vice President J.D. Vance will lead the delegation, along with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.