France records more deaths than births for first time since World War II

France has entered a new demographic era, recording a negative natural population balance in 2025 for the first time since the Second World War. According to the official annual report from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), published Tuesday, deaths outnumbered births by approximately 6,000 people. This marks a significant reversal from just a decade ago, when France saw a natural population gain of around 200,000 people a year.

A Historic Fertility Decline

The shift was driven by a continued sharp fall in the number of births. Approximately 645,000 babies were born in France in 2025, a drop of 2.1% from 2024 and the lowest annual total recorded since the postwar period. Compared to the last peak in 2010, births have fallen by 24%. Consequently, the total fertility rate—the average number of children per woman—has declined to 1.56, its lowest level since the end of World War I. Demographers point to multiple factors behind the trend, including economic uncertainty, high housing and childcare costs, and difficulties balancing professional and family life.

Rising Mortality and the Role of Migration

On the other side of the equation, the number of deaths rose to about 651,000, a 1.5% increase from the previous year. This rise is attributed to the large baby-boom generation reaching advanced ages of higher mortality, alongside a particularly severe winter flu epidemic at the start of 2025. Despite this negative natural balance, France's overall population continued to grow by 0.25% to an estimated 69.1 million as of January 1, 2026. This slight growth was sustained entirely by net migration, estimated at around 176,000 people in 2025.

Long-Term Implications and a European Context

While the milestone is symbolic, projections suggest the population will not begin a sustained decline for at least two more decades, as continued immigration is expected to offset the natural deficit for a time. With this change, France has joined nearly all other major European Union nations, where deaths have outnumbered births for years. Germany has seen a negative balance since 1990, Italy since 1993, and Spain since 2015. The reversal presents long-term challenges for the country's workforce, pension system, and the funding of public services.