Gaza's future: Disarmament dilemma, failed peace board, and potential return to war

Following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, by the Palestinian Resistance movement, the Israeli government disclosed some of its longstanding colonial objectives in the Gaza Strip, such as destroying the resistance movements, creating buffer security zones, and even advocating for Israeli settlements in Gaza. After almost two years of Israeli genocide, Israel found itself unable to move forward with military means, leading it to pursue negotiation and diplomacy as another means to achieve its colonial policies.

The Board of Peace

The Board of Peace director returned to Cairo to discuss a plan calling for the gradual disarmament of Hamas over eight months in exchange for Israeli withdrawal and the entry of the Gaza Administrative Committee. However, the Board appears to be an ineffective instrument that signifies political concessions while Israeli destruction and violations still endure. Hamas claims it has implemented the entirety of the first phase, while Israel implemented only a small part, continuing daily assassinations, bombings, and restrictions.

Pessimism reasons

There are several reasons to be pessimistic about the Board of Peace: it lacks enforcement power and binding authority. Despite Israel's daily ceasefire violations, there were no consequences for Israel. The Board seems to function more as diplomatic theater than a real conflict-resolution mechanism. Any agreement detached from rebuilding Gaza and lifting the blockade would be considered hollow by Palestinians.

Potential scenarios

With Gaza's civilian infrastructure in ruins, Israel seems uninterested in any peace agreement. The first scenario: the situation remains unchanged, with no reconstruction and continuation of humanitarian tragedy. This scenario is highly feasible due to international preoccupation with the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The second scenario: a return to genocidal war in Gaza. Israeli media reports suggest the army has begun preparing to resume the war to disarm Hamas. Netanyahu may resort to resuming the war after failing to achieve his stated goals in Iran and Lebanon, to restore his popularity ahead of Israeli general elections.

Greater Israel

Israel's radical policies have relied solely on violence and terrorism on several fronts: Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Israel pursues further expansion of its borders to realize its goal of "Greater Israel."