Gulf states walk tightrope between self-defense and avoiding war with Iran

As the US-Israel war with Iran spreads throughout the Middle East, Gulf countries facing repeated drone and missile attacks are trying to strike a delicate balance: protecting themselves while avoiding being pulled directly into a widening regional conflict. Governments across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) say their priority is protecting their populations and critical infrastructure, as Iranian retaliatory strikes increasingly reach cities and energy facilities across the region.

Cautious calibration

"The Gulf states are pursuing a very cautious and calibrated strategy," said Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco, a security analyst focusing on the region. "Their goal is to defend their territory and critical infrastructure while avoiding being drawn directly into the broader conflict." Since the US and Israel started their attacks on Iran, hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles have been intercepted across GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. Several Gulf governments say civilian infrastructure has also been targeted, including airports, oil facilities and desalination plants.

Shared threat, different approaches

Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said the countries of the region are confronting a shared security challenge. "There are important differences between all the Gulf states but right now they are confronting a shared national security threat. They are all signaling that they are working to find off-ramps and to de-escalate as much as they can." However, analysts say GCC states are not following a single unified strategy. Ali Bakir, an assistant professor at Qatar University, said countries are largely relying on their own defensive capabilities while supporting each other politically. "They largely rely on their individual defense capabilities while expressing strong support for one another. Their calculations are based on the understanding that they are equipped to defend themselves and can absorb the negative financial and economic implications of the conflict."

Pressure for retaliation

For now, Gulf countries are not participating in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. But analysts say the situation could shift if attacks on Gulf territory continue. Mazzucco said governments have emphasized their right to self-defense, noting that "this position leaves open the possibility of strikes against Iranian territory if the attacks continue or escalate." Bakir warned that sustained attacks could strain missile defense systems and increase the financial cost of defending the region's airspace. "Consequently, they would come under immense pressure to shift their strategy from defense to offense. If they ultimately choose this path, it would be because Iran forced their hand."

Critical infrastructure at risk

Mazzucco also warned that repeated attacks on key infrastructure could push governments closer to retaliation. "Desalination plants are essential lifelines for Gulf societies... If Iranian strikes increasingly target this type of critical infrastructure, Gulf states may feel compelled to respond with carefully calibrated offensive actions." A study published in Nature in January said the MENA region accounts for nearly 42% of global operational desalination capacity, with approximately 5,000 plants producing almost 29 million cubic meters of water daily. Such responses would likely involve limited strikes against Iranian military assets rather than joining the broader air campaign. Other possible measures include economic pressure, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the UAE is weighing freezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets.

Diplomatic efforts

Alongside defensive measures, Gulf governments are also trying to reduce tensions through diplomacy, with leaders across the region repeatedly calling for de-escalation and negotiations. Ministers from the GCC and EU held an emergency meeting last week to discuss the crisis and called on Iran to halt attacks on Arab countries. Bakir said that although Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar possess some of the region's most advanced fighter aircraft, they appear determined to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran. "To prevent such a scenario, the GCC states will continue to urge all involved parties to halt hostilities and return to the negotiation table."

Air defenses under pressure

Since the start of the war, Gulf countries have relied heavily on air-defense systems to intercept incoming missiles and drones. Data from officials and the Institute for National Security Studies suggest that Iran carried out more than 700 ballistic and cruise missile attacks on Arab countries and Israel during the first eight days of the war, with roughly 60% targeting American assets and 40% directed toward Israel. Analysts estimate that more than 2,000 drones have been launched from Iran toward Arab countries and Israel since the conflict began. Mazzucco said the region's layered defense systems have been largely effective but cautioned that sustaining this level of defense over time could accelerate depletion of missile inventories, as standard practice often involves firing two interceptors per incoming projectile. To reduce pressure on expensive interceptors, Gulf militaries are using other tools, including surface combatants and AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to counter drones.