Israeli opposition would secure Knesset majority, poll shows

Israel's opposition would secure a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset if elections were held today, according to a new opinion poll published Friday, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition trailing with only 49 seats.

Poll findings

The Lazar Research Institute survey, conducted in cooperation with the Israeli daily Maariv between June 17 and 18, sampled 501 respondents with a margin of error of approximately 4.4%, showing opposition parties capturing the minimum 61 seats required to form a government while Netanyahu's coalition would secure 49 seats and Arab parties would collectively win 10. The opposition Yashar party led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot continued its upward trajectory, climbing to 21 seats to tie Netanyahu's ruling Likud party — which has lost seven seats in recent polling to mark its weakest showing since August 2025.

Coalition dynamics

The newspaper noted that the latest findings were particularly significant because the far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, cleared the electoral threshold and was projected to win four seats. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Together party has dropped by 11 seats since the alliance was announced in April, the survey found.

Regional context

The poll was released following the signing earlier this week of a 14-point US-Iran agreement aimed at ending the war between the two sides, which commits both nations and their allies to the immediate cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Members of the Israeli government, particularly far-right ministers, have rejected linking the Iran agreement to ending operations in Lebanon and insist on maintaining Israel's military presence in southern Lebanon, according to the report.