Israel risks regional isolation as Erdoğan–Trump alignment deepens

Türkiye’s rising influence in the Middle East is reshaping the strategic landscape, particularly as Ankara intensifies diplomatic efforts around the Gaza ceasefire discussions.

A new assessment published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz argues that Israel’s objectives are losing traction as Türkiye and the United States explore closer coordination on Gaza, the F-35 program and regional security. According to the paper, a scenario in which Donald Trump supports President Erdoğan’s proposed international stabilisation force could push Tel Aviv to the margins.

A turning point in bilateral relations

Citing remarks from Türkiye’s Ambassador to Washington and U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack, the report notes that Türkiye’s involvement in any Gaza-based peace mission would be “both indispensable and potentially transformative” for ties between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Haaretz underscores the personal rapport between Erdoğan and Trump, arguing that cooperation on defence and crisis management—including efforts to address the S-400 dispute—could mark a substantive shift in the regional equation.

F-35 dynamics and the KAAN factor

The analysis highlights that Trump has already floated the idea of reintegrating Türkiye into the F-35 development program, from which Ankara was removed in 2020. Haaretz writes: “As Israeli officials warn that Saudi Arabia’s interest in advanced fighter jets may undermine their air superiority, Türkiye is preparing to procure a number of F-35s while also holding talks with Egypt regarding exports of the domestically produced KAAN aircraft.” The newspaper argues that these parallel developments signal a broader redistribution of military leverage in the Middle East.

Diverging views on Syria

Another point of tension, the report states, is the growing contrast between Washington’s and Tel Aviv’s assessments of Türkiye’s presence in northern Syria. During a recent meeting, Trump praised Türkiye’s Syria strategy as “effective and results-oriented,” a view directly at odds with Israel’s longstanding claim that Ankara’s operations undermine its security posture. The article also recalls Trump’s criticism of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu following the Israeli military action near the Golan Heights, noting that the U.S. president and Erdoğan share a similar vision for a unified Syrian state structure.

Concerns over U.S. envoy Tom Barrack

A separate report by Israel’s Walla platform alleges that senior Israeli officials view U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack as excessively sympathetic to Türkiye’s strategic priorities. One official is quoted as saying: “Barrack behaves like Türkiye’s envoy and is influencing regional dynamics negatively.” According to the same source, Netanyahu sees Barrack as “a hostile actor” whose recent comments in Doha—“Israel may define itself as a democracy, but the most functional system in this region is a benevolent monarchy”—fueled further discontent. The report adds that Israel continues to cultivate allies within Trump’s circle, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Walz.