Munich talks confirm geopolitical shift, elevating Türkiye's strategic role

The Munich Security Conference in mid-February laid bare a transformed global landscape. With Russia's war on Ukraine entering its fourth year and a new Middle East balance emerging after Israel's military campaign, the strategic environment has fundamentally shifted. The United States under President Donald Trump pursues protectionist tariffs, pressures NATO allies on defense spending, and pursues regime change abroad—complicating relations with both allies and competitors.

Europe's Unanswered Questions

Europe faces a strategic dilemma that must be resolved before any genuine reassessment of relations with Ankara can occur. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius proposed a standing European force of 100,000 soldiers in January, citing reduced US presence—yet member states have not answered how Europe would defend itself without American troops. The EU's November 2025 enlargement package lumps Türkiye with nine other candidates at vastly different stages, while citing "frozen" rule-of-law progress at 2018 levels and making Cyprus talks a cooperation prerequisite. Such bureaucratic approaches cannot meet geopolitical urgency.

Ankara's Rising Weight

Türkiye has historically leveraged geopolitical shifts—in 1989/90 and 2015—to strengthen its position. Today, its regional influence and NATO weight have grown further. As American unpredictability and potential US-Russia agreements reshape the alliance, Ankara's role becomes increasingly critical. The thaw in US-Russia relations and uncertainty over Ukraine's future territorial order demand close EU-NATO coordination with Türkiye to preserve transatlantic integrity.

New Frameworks Needed

Türkiye's geostrategic importance will continue growing, but realizing its full advantage requires resetting EU-Türkiye relations on a new footing—where traditional membership questions may no longer be decisive. Only a genuinely realigned Europe can prevent the global balance from shifting further toward the Asia-Pacific.