NATO or EU: Which transatlantic pillar crumbles first under Trump's pressure?

The 2026 Munich Security Conference laid bare the contours of President Donald Trump's second-term vision for transatlantic relations: a hardened, transactional alliance where burden-sharing is non-negotiable and liberal internationalism gives way to civilization-focused power politics. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's address, punctuated by themes of "Christian values," migration crises, and deindustrialization, delivered a polished but unmistakable message—the post-war order is over, and Europe must choose: adapt to Washington's new world design or go it alone.

NATO's Fork in the Road: Europeanization or Hollowing Out

Washington's strategic clarity now poses a direct challenge to NATO's collective defense ethos. The administration's "flexible realism" conditions American leadership on European defense spending increases, signaling that the alliance's normative foundation is being replaced by a pure power-interest calculus. Two paths emerge: either Europe dramatically boosts capabilities and command structures, transforming NATO into a European-led complement to US forces, or the alliance atrophies into a paper tiger. Rubio's pointed absence from a Ukraine session underscored that Europe must increasingly manage its neighborhood crises independently.

The EU's Existential Test: Unity Versus Sovereignty

Brussels faces an even more complex challenge. Trump's preference for bilateral engagement with individual European capitals over Brussels-based institutions amplifies centrifugal forces already straining the Union. The president's cultivation of ties with Italy, Poland, and Hungary, combined with implicit support for EU-skeptic parties, threatens to undermine common policy-making in defense, energy, and migration. With Germany and France grappling with domestic pressures, the window for deepening European strategic autonomy may be closing. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's recent signals about moving toward a "multi-speed" Europe reflect growing acknowledgment that consensus-based integration faces paralysis under external pressure.

Civilization Politics and the New Transatlantic Bargain

Rubio's "civilization" framing represents more than rhetorical flourish—it signals Washington's intent to reshape transatlantic relations along ideological lines, prioritizing cultural affinity and shared values over institutional frameworks. This approach risks importing America's culture wars into European politics, potentially deepening divisions between member states aligned with or resistant to this vision. The core question facing both NATO and the EU is no longer about incremental reform but fundamental adaptation: which institution proves more resilient under pressure to transform? As the old order's comforts evaporate, the answer will determine whether Europe emerges as a genuine strategic partner or a fragmented collection of secondary actors.