Nobel Institute Suspects Espionage Behind Peace Prize Leak

The Nobel Institute has launched an investigation into a suspected espionage operation responsible for leaking Venezuelan opposition figure Maria Corina Machado's selection as the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate hours before the official announcement. Nobel Committee Chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes confirmed Machado's award during the Oslo press ceremony, making her the first Venezuelan and fourth South American recipient of the prestigious peace honor amid controversy surrounding the premature disclosure.Suspicious Betting Patterns and Financial Gains

Norwegian media outlets documented extraordinary betting activity preceding the official announcement, with Machado's probability of winning surging from 3.75% to nearly 73% overnight on prediction market Polymarket. According to financial publications, several users placed substantial wagers, including one bet exceeding $67,000, while three accounts collectively profited approximately $27,000 – with one account created specifically on the day the suspicious bets were placed. Neither international media nor political analysts had identified Machado as a leading contender before the leak.

Espionage Investigation and Security Review

Nobel Institute Director Kristian Berg Harpiken confirmed to Norwegian television that "highly likely it's espionage," while announcing a comprehensive investigation and potential security enhancements. Harpiken clarified that while espionage could create perceptions of internal leaks, this scenario remained unlikely. He acknowledged the Institute routinely faces intelligence gathering attempts, stating "It's no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage. It is obvious that the institution is of interest to actors who want to acquire information, both states and other organizations," with motivations spanning political and economic objectives.

Political Controversy and Global Reactions

The Nobel Committee recognized Machado "for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy," though the opposition leader had been barred from Venezuela's 2024 presidential election. The announcement prompted international reactions, including criticism from US President Donald Trump's office characterizing the decision as "politics over peace." Additional controversy emerged regarding Machado's documented support for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, with critics highlighting her past statements describing Venezuela's struggle as parallel to Israel's and characterizing Israel as a "genuine ally of freedom."