Poland becomes NATO's eastern military hub with 5% GDP defense spending

Poland is rapidly transforming into a central military power on NATO's eastern flank, embarking on a historic rearmament program fueled by Russia's war in Ukraine. The country now dedicates between 4% and 5% of its GDP to defense—one of the highest rates in the alliance—and aims to grow its armed forces to 300,000 troops this decade.

A strategic shift driven by Russia's war

The fundamental shift began in February 2022, according to analysts. "Poland must possess independent military capabilities... to conduct a defensive war against Russia alone," said Jacek Tarocinski, chief military analyst at Warsaw's Centre for Eastern Studies. From a pre-war force of 130,000, Poland now fields over 215,000 active personnel, making it NATO's third-largest military by troop numbers after the US and Türkiye. Defense spending more than doubled from 2.2% of GDP in 2022 to over 4% by 2024.

Unprecedented arms purchases and regional leadership

The scale of procurement is reshaping Europe's defense landscape. Poland is replacing its Soviet-era arsenal with hundreds of US Abrams and South Korean K2 tanks, K9 howitzers, F-35 fighter jets, and Apache helicopters. "The new hardware significantly boosts Poland’s ability to blunt any conventional assault," said Malgorzata Zachara-Szymanska, an associate professor at Jagiellonian University. These purchases, coupled with technology transfer deals, position Warsaw as a "regional security hub," influencing neighbors' procurement and deepening NATO interoperability.

Societal caution and a new European pole

Despite political consensus on rearmament, public willingness to fight remains measured, with polls showing only about 23% would volunteer if attacked. Analysts attribute this to the sobering presence of over a million Ukrainian refugees. In Brussels, Poland's rise is viewed with "a mixture of relief and unease," filling a leadership vacuum on security. As Zachara-Szymanska notes, Poland is now seen not as a replacement for traditional powers like France and Germany, but as "an indispensable new pole in a more plural, security-driven Union."