Polish FM warns 'Polexit' would slash GDP, wages, exports amid regional security threats

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski used his annual parliamentary address Thursday to deliver a forceful warning about the catastrophic economic consequences of a potential "Polexit," presenting detailed estimates showing EU departure would reduce GDP by 4-7% over five to ten years, cut wages by up to 8%, and slash meat and dairy exports by 45-50%. "Be careful with your dreams—they may come true," he cautioned political forces advocating looser ties with Brussels.

Economic Stakes and National Interest

Sikorski emphasized that Poland exports approximately €350 billion ($413 billion) in goods annually, with nearly three-quarters destined for EU markets. "Poland's national interest is to remain in the EU and co-shape it," he asserted, arguing that sovereignty is strengthened through participation in EU decision-making rather than diminished. "Outside the EU, Poland would be poorer, weaker and less secure," he declared, noting the country faces thousands of daily cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and disinformation campaigns linked to Moscow.

Security Architecture and Eastern Threat

The foreign minister stressed that EU and NATO membership form inseparable elements of Poland's security architecture, rejecting narratives portraying Brussels or Berlin as threats to sovereignty. "The EU helps manage relations with Germany," Sikorski said, arguing common rules constrain power and prevent domination by stronger states. "We should not invent enemies in the West. The real threat comes from the East." He reaffirmed Poland's strong backing for Ukraine as a matter of national interest, warning that Ukrainian defeat would worsen Poland's strategic environment.

Transatlantic Relations and European Defense

Addressing concerns about transatlantic reliability, Sikorski argued Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own security through increased defense spending and industrial cooperation. His address, attended by President Karol Nawrocki amid public tension over EU defense financing, aimed to reassure European partners of Warsaw's commitment while countering nationalist rhetoric gaining traction in opposition circles.