Regime change in Iran far more complex than Venezuela, says Rubio

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly characterized any potential effort to change Iran's government as a vastly more complicated undertaking than the US campaign to oust Venezuela's leadership. His remarks, delivered during a Senate hearing on Wednesday, highlight the significant challenges perceived in Washington regarding Tehran, even as the administration maintains a posture of military deterrence.

Acknowledging the Depth of the Challenge

While answering questions on US policy toward Venezuela, Secretary Rubio turned his attention to Iran. He stated that altering the Iranian regime would be "even far more complex than the one we're describing now," referring to Venezuela. He attributed this complexity to the longevity and institutionalization of Iran's clerical system, noting, "you're talking about a regime that's in place for a very long time." Rubio concluded that such a scenario "is going to require a lot of careful thinking, if that eventuality ever presents itself," signaling a recognition of the profound difficulties involved in such a geopolitical project.

Military Posture Framed as Defensive Deterrence

Rubio framed the substantial US military footprint in the Middle East as a defensive necessity. He estimated that 30,000 to 40,000 American troops are stationed across eight or nine facilities in the region, positions he said are within range of thousands of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. "We have to have enough force and power in the region, just on a baseline to defend against that possibility," Rubio argued, stating the need to "preemptively prevent" an attack on US forces and allies like Israel. He directly linked this posture to existing security agreements and the US commitment to Israeli defense.

Assessing Iranian Regime Strength and Protest Dynamics

Despite acknowledging the regime's resilience, Rubio assessed that the government in Tehran is "probably weaker" than it has ever been. He accused the Iranian leadership of failing to address the "core complaints" of protesters, which he identified as a collapsing economy. Rubio predicted that unless the government fundamentally changes or leaves power, protest waves will reignite in the future. His comments follow President Donald Trump's statement about a "massive armada" moving toward Iran and his hope that Tehran would negotiate. Iran has experienced significant protests since late December, driven by economic crisis, which officials blame on US-led foreign interference.