Sudan conflict shifts as El Fasher falls amid humanitarian crisis

The strategic city of El Fasher has fallen to paramilitary forces, representing a significant shift in Sudan's ongoing civil war and creating a humanitarian crisis that echoes previous atrocities in the Darfur region. The capture of this key urban center signals changing battlefield dynamics as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) consolidate control over western Sudan while government forces maintain positions in the capital Khartoum and northeastern territories.

Geopolitical Dimensions and External Involvement

The conflict has evolved into a proxy war with substantial evidence indicating military support from external actors. The United Arab Emirates stands accused of supplying advanced weaponry to RSF units through Chad and Libya in exchange for access to gold mines and agricultural lands, while Israel reportedly provides intelligence support despite simultaneously attempting to position itself as a potential mediator in peace negotiations.

Failed Diplomacy and Regional Implications

Recent diplomatic initiatives, including a Quad Summit hosted by the United States involving Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Sudanese military representatives, have failed to produce concrete results toward ceasefire implementation. Western powers face criticism for their reluctance to enforce arms embargoes against the UAE, whose military support continues despite mounting evidence of human rights violations and civilian targeting throughout the conflict.

Potential for Turkish Mediation

As regional diplomatic efforts stall, Türkiye emerges as a potential mediator due to its positive regional reputation and absence of colonial history in Africa. With previous successful mediation experience and humanitarian engagement in conflict zones, Türkiye possesses the diplomatic credibility to facilitate negotiations that prioritize Sudanese sovereignty and civilian welfare over external geopolitical interests currently prolonging the violence.