Sudan's forgotten war: 11,300 civilians killed, 14 million displaced as RSF atrocities mount

As the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran continues to dominate global headlines, an ongoing conflict and humanitarian catastrophe in northeastern Africa is slipping under the radar. According to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, more than 11,300 civilians were confirmed killed in Sudan last year alone. When the thousands more who remain missing or unidentified are factored in, the full scale of Sudan's humanitarian crisis becomes even more apparent. With neither basic needs—food, water, shelter—nor security and healthcare being met, nearly 14 million people have been forced from their homes.

RSF atrocities

The driving force behind the escalating violence and deepening humanitarian collapse is a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UN has confirmed that the RSF has committed atrocities in El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, that may constitute genocide and crimes against humanity—and warns that the violence risks spilling over into the Kordofan region. Yet despite these warnings, the UN has struggled to offer any meaningful response beyond calling for an expansion of the arms embargo, which currently applies only to Darfur, to cover all of Sudan. As Sudanese Minister of Justice Abdullah Muhammad Darf has noted, however, such a measure could ultimately work in the militias' favor rather than against them.

Divided nation

The Sudanese Armed Forces' recapture of the capital Khartoum last March was a watershed moment, yet the country remains effectively split along an east-west fault line. The military now holds sway over 13 of Sudan's 18 states, controlling Port Sudan, the Nile corridor, and the eastern regions bordering Ethiopia. The RSF controls the administrative centers of the remaining five states, having erected a parallel so-called administration centered in Nyala operating under the name of the Government of Peace and Unity. It controls all five Darfur states and retains influence over parts of North and West Kordofan, maintaining supply lines through border corridors with Chad and Libya.

Ethnic dimensions

The struggle for power in Sudan runs along two distinct fault lines: the contest between urban Arabs and Bedouin Arabs (Ja'aliyyin versus Juhayna), and the conflict between Bedouin Arabs and autochthonous Black African communities such as the Masalit. Sovereignty Council chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan hails from the urban Ja'aliyyin tribe, while RSF rebel leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) belongs to the Rizeygat branch of the semi-nomadic Juhayna. RSF militias have been deliberately targeting non-Arab Masalit and Zaghawa communities with systematic brutality, displacing millions and fundamentally reshaping the region's demographic makeup.

Regional ripple effects

The power vacuum has created fertile ground for trafficking networks in people, weapons, and narcotics. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, drug networks moved swiftly to exploit Sudan's lawless environment—in early 2026, around half a tonne of crystal methamphetamine was seized in Port Sudan, and a laboratory capable of producing 100,000 Captagon tablets per hour was discovered in Al-Jayli. Refugee flows have unsettled neighboring countries, with more than 915,000 Sudanese crossing into Chad and roughly 800,000 into South Sudan. Tensions with Ethiopia are growing over alleged drone strikes on Sudanese territory.

International entanglements

Egypt backs the Sudanese military while maintaining ties with the UAE, the RSF's principal patron. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are broadly aligned with Egypt, with Ankara delivering tonnes of aid to Port Sudan. Russia has firmly aligned with the Sudanese Armed Forces, with plans to establish a naval base in Port Sudan and Moscow's provision of advanced weaponry widely seen as decisive in turning the tide against the RSF. The US and EU pursue sanctions and diplomatic pressure, while China struggles to maintain its foothold in Sudanese oil fields.

Four scenarios

Forecasting Sudan's future is deeply uncertain, with four plausible scenarios: renewed power-sharing through international pressure (least likely); prolonged low-intensity conflict with a deepening war economy; permanent partition with RSF declaring unilateral independence; or Sudanese Armed Forces consolidating dominance if UAE support for RSF is curtailed by the Iran war's consequences. However the war evolves, its course will be shaped primarily by regional actors—though global power positions could prove equally consequential.