Ukraine war casualties could reach 2 million by spring

A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent Washington-based think tank, projects that the nearly four-year war in Ukraine could result in approximately 2 million total military casualties—including killed, wounded, and missing—by the coming spring. The report, titled "Russia's War of Attrition in Ukraine," paints a picture of a conflict where territorial gains are minimal but human losses are catastrophic, with Russia suffering casualties on a scale not seen by a major power in decades.

Staggering Russian losses amid limited gains

The CSIS study asserts that despite maintaining offensive pressure, Moscow has paid a "heavy price" on the battlefield. It estimates that since February 2022, the Russian military has suffered roughly 1.2 million personnel casualties, with approximately 325,000 troops killed. This scale of loss, the report emphasizes, represents the highest casualties for any major power since World War II. Strikingly, these immense sacrifices have yielded extremely limited advances, with Russian forces recently progressing at an average rate of just 15 to 70 meters per day—among the slowest rates of advance in a century of major warfare.

Ukrainian casualties and the trajectory of the war

On the Ukrainian side, the report estimates total casualties to be between 500,000 and 600,000, with 100,000 to 140,000 soldiers killed. The combined toll for both armies underscores the war's brutal, grinding nature as a true war of attrition. The central projection of the CSIS analysis is that if the current tempo of intense combat continues, the aggregate casualty figure for both sides could reach the 2 million threshold by spring 2025. This grim forecast highlights the unsustainable human cost of the conflict, regardless of tactical outcomes on the front lines.

Strategic and economic implications

Beyond the battlefield statistics, the report points to the growing strain on the Russian economy, suggesting that the long-term sustainability of its war effort is under increasing pressure. The analysis of a high-cost, low-gain war dynamic reinforces the urgent need for diplomatic solutions. This context gives greater weight to peace initiatives and mediation efforts from neutral actors like Türkiye, which has consistently positioned itself as a vital broker seeking to end the bloodshed and restore stability to the Black Sea region, a critical area for global food and energy security.