US agency sees Hormuz oil shipments resuming in Q3, full recovery by 2027

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday that it expects oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to resume in the third quarter of 2026, but traffic through the key chokepoint is not expected to return to pre‑conflict levels until early 2027. In its June Short‑Term Energy Outlook, the agency assumed the strait will remain effectively closed in the near term. Even after resumption, it would likely take several months for traffic to ramp up.

Inventory draws and demand cuts

The agency said global oil markets remain highly volatile, with reduced output in May exceeding 11 million barrels per day compared to pre‑conflict levels. Global oil inventories are expected to fall by 6.3 million barrels per day in Q2 and by 7.6 million barrels per day in Q3. The EIA cut its global oil demand outlook, now expecting consumption to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025, reflecting high prices, reduced availability, and government initiatives. Demand is forecast to rebound in 2027, rising by 2.5 million barrels per day.

Price outlook

Despite production outages, Brent crude prices fell in May due to weaker demand and reports of a possible US‑Iran deal. The EIA expects Brent to average $105 per barrel in June and July, assuming the strait remains mostly closed. Prices are expected to fall to an average of $79 per barrel in 2027 as flows resume incrementally and producers restore shut‑in production.