US investigates oil trades tied to Trump Iran war decisions

US federal authorities have launched a review into a series of large oil futures trades made before key announcements by President Donald Trump concerning the Iran conflict, according to US media reports. The investigation focuses on transactions worth more than $2.6 billion linked to market movements surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, ceasefire decisions, and potential military action in the Middle East.

Federal agencies examine trading activity

The US Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are reportedly analyzing at least four major trades that anticipated falling oil prices ahead of sensitive policy announcements. The transactions were tied to developments involving Iran, including pauses in military operations and diplomatic statements affecting global energy markets.

Investigators are examining whether non-public information connected to US foreign policy decisions may have been used to secure financial gains in oil futures markets. However, officials have not publicly identified the traders involved, and no formal allegations of insider trading have been announced.

Large bets placed before policy announcements

According to reports citing market data, traders placed more than $500 million in bearish oil positions on March 23, shortly before Trump announced a delay in possible attacks targeting Iran’s power infrastructure. Another major transaction, valued at nearly $960 million, reportedly occurred hours before Washington declared a temporary ceasefire on April 7.

The timing of the trades has intensified scrutiny in Washington, where lawmakers have raised concerns about possible market manipulation linked to confidential government decisions during the Iran war.

Oil markets react to Middle East tensions

Global oil prices have experienced significant volatility since the escalation of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Markets have reacted sharply to attacks on energy facilities, military developments, and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making stability in the region critical for international markets, including energy-importing economies such as Türkiye.

Congress calls for tighter oversight

US lawmakers have urged regulators to closely monitor unusual trading patterns connected to geopolitical events. Officials warn that rapid changes in war policy, sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations can create opportunities for abuse if privileged information reaches financial actors before public announcements are made.

The reported investigation is centered on oil futures contracts traded through major exchanges, including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, where energy investors frequently respond to developments in the Middle East.