Trump moves forward in the fog..

Having built up a major military presence in the Gulf, Trump says he will resort to military intervention if Iran does not accept U.S. conditions. Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar, meanwhile, are working to establish a genuine negotiating table between the U.S. and Iran in order to prevent war.

Israel, American neocons (the two are the same), and mainstream hawkish Republicans argue that Iran is at its weakest moment and want Trump to deliver the final blow. Trump is hoping that Iran will raise the white flag without a war. It does not appear possible for Iran to accept the conditions Trump has put forward. Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar, however, are striving to find a middle ground that would lead to an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, arguing that an attack on Iran would cause regional chaos.

Trump’s intervention in Iran has nothing to do with U.S. national security interests. A war with Iran serves Israel’s interests. Israel expects American soldiers to fight its war. A war with Iran also contradicts Trump’s new “Monroe Doctrine,” reshaped in his own colors.

Trump believes he can secure an easy victory in Iran, as he did in Venezuela. Iran is not Venezuela, and military history is full of examples showing that interventions assumed to be easy often lead to long, destructive wars. U.S. interventions in Vietnam in the 1950s and in Afghanistan in the early 2000s are just two such examples. Both interventions kept the U.S. in those countries for many years. In both cases, U.S. wars lasted roughly twenty years.

In the end, the U.S. was forced to withdraw from both countries. After the U.S. withdrawal, the North Vietnamese took control of all of Vietnam. The Taliban also returned to power by seizing control of Afghanistan after U.S. troops withdrew. The U.S. failed to achieve its political objectives in both countries. The U.S. intervention in Iraq, driven by Israel and the neocons, was not much different either. The U.S. also failed to achieve the political goals it had declared in Iraq.

The Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz, in his famous book On War, said that war is the continuation of politics by other means. Therefore, the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq stand out as striking examples of the failure of American policies. The lessons of history, however, are a guide only for those willing to listen.

As you may recall, during his 2016 election campaign Trump described America’s endless wars as the stupidity of neocons and the presidents who went along with them. Trump was elected president with a promise to end these foolish wars that cost Americans money and blood. Although Trump has repeatedly blamed the neocons during his second presidency as well, the contradictions between his actions and his words continue. Bombing Iran for Israel in June 2025 was one such example. Trump drew his sword a second time to “finish his mistake.”

The political objectives behind Trump’s threat to use military force against Iran are also unclear. Is he seeking regime change, or does he want a genuine agreement—no one knows. While Trump had initiated nuclear negotiations with Iran, he gave Israel the green light to attack Iran, and U.S. aircraft then rained bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities. These attacks dealt a major blow to Trump’s credibility. Trump’s sharp reversals are fueling Iranian skepticism.

Even a limited but harsh U.S. intervention in Iran carries the risk of escalating the conflict into a full-scale war. This is where the “fog of war” comes into play. An unexpected Iranian counter-move could overturn Trump’s assumption that he can get out of this with minimal losses. Such a development could force Trump into a ground operation he does not want at all.

What Trump is most sensitive to is military casualties on the ground. Losses could carry a very heavy political cost for him. American soldiers returning home in coffins could cause Trump’s party to lose the midterm elections in November. The absence of military losses in Venezuela does not guarantee the same outcome in Iran. Therefore, Trump is moving through a fog in the Gulf.

Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar, meanwhile, are holding up a lantern for Trump in this fog. Trump closing his eyes to that lantern may please Israel and the neocons, but the cost of a war with Iran—and of that war spreading across the region—would place yet another heavy burden on U.S. taxpayers. Trump needs to abandon the “one strike and it’s over” mindset and, if he truly wants a lasting and genuine agreement with Iran, move forward by the light of the lantern held by Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar.