Can Trump change the election system?

In a conservative podcast, Trump sparked a debate that raised concerns about election security by stating that Republicans should seize and nationalize elections. He had previously suggested that elections were ‘unnecessary,’ a statement the White House later dismissed as an obvious joke. Last week, the FBI—with the participation of the Director of National Intelligence—conducted an operation to retrieve 2020 ballots and records from Fulton County, Georgia, demonstrating Trump's persistent claim that he lost the state fraudulently in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice sent letters to all states requesting voter information, but states declined to provide records beyond publicly available data. This step is also seen as an effort to pressure states ahead of the November elections.

The Trump administration, already in legal battles with states over this issue, is pressuring Georgia on one hand while calling on Republicans to nationalize elections on the other. Significant Republican losses in last November’s and last week's special elections, coupled with a decline in Trump’s popularity, are increasing the risk that Republicans could lose one or both chambers of Congress in November. Trump appears to be taking action to prevent this scenario, but changing the 250-year-old federal election system—where states run elections—is very difficult. Nevertheless, Trump is again pushing boundaries, attempting to deflect responsibility for a potential defeat in November. It could be argued that by opening the election system to debate, he is trying both to exert pressure on the November 2026 elections and keep the discussion of his possible 2028 candidacy alive.

THE FBI RAID IN GEORGIA

Georgia, one of the five swing states where the presidential candidates' votes were close in 2020, became a major controversy due to Trump's phone call with the state's top official, Brad Raffensperger. That call was used as evidence in the criminal case against Trump for attempting to overturn election results. Despite objections from Trump and his supporters leading to three statewide recounts, the outcome confirmed Biden's win by approximately 12,000 votes. To this day, Trump has refused to accept this result, consistently claiming votes were stolen, fraud was committed, and non-citizens voted, but these claims were rejected by courts due to a lack of concrete evidence.

Last week’s FBI raid to seize election ballots and other records in Georgia shows Trump has not closed this file and wants to create question marks that could support his claim of being right. The seizure of these election records by the FBI—whose perception of politicization has grown under Kash Patel’s influence—and the participation of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in the operation, signaling that the matter somehow concerns national security, indicate the Trump administration is trying to use these records to sow doubt. These doubts will prepare the ground to legitimize Trump’s efforts to influence the processes in the November elections.

ELECTIONS ARE UNDER STATE AUTHORITY

In the American federal system, the authority to conduct elections belongs to the states. The country's political history has produced a structure where states are primary and the federal government was designed to be as weak as possible. The first 13 states came together, and the federal government was later designed as an overarching structure authorized in matters like foreign policy and national security that concern the entire country. In this system, where the autonomous structure of states is extremely strong, there is a historical process of the federal government growing and strengthening further during national disasters, crises, and wars. States, which govern themselves with their own legislatures, governors, and law enforcement, also organize the elections to choose the senators, representatives, and president who will represent them at the federal level.

Election practices, which vary in many aspects according to each state's own budget and political traditions, do not allow for a single nationwide standard. From this perspective, for Trump's call for a national election system to materialize, the Constitution would need to be amended—a change to which an overwhelming majority of states would object. States would not agree to surrender such a fundamental authority to the federal government. It must not be forgotten that Trump uses the rhetoric of election fraud before every election, as it provides an excuse to prevent his leadership from being questioned in the event of a potential loss.

TRUMP'S ELECTION STRATEGY

It could be said that Trump has begun to worry, as Democrats' success in last November's and last week's special election in Texas coincided with a drop in his job approval ratings in polls. Losing a majority in either chamber of Congress in November could lead Democrats to initiate impeachment processes against Trump. These processes would not remove him from office but would significantly weaken his lame-duck position in his final two years. Trump's earlier mention of running again in 2028 also signals his willingness to put all his cards on the table. Having succeeded in making the Republican Party identified with himself, Trump is trying to send the message that Republicans cannot win elections without him and therefore they should question the election processes.

Trump, who likely predicts that Democrats will come after him to prosecute him again in a scenario where he is not in power, may argue that he must run again in 2028 to prevent this. Condemning the Georgia elections as suspicious, trying to collect voter registration information from states, and starting a national election debate can be read as an effort to pressure the November elections. By trying to preempt a potential defeat in this way, Trump also appears to be paving the way for his possible re-candidacy. Changing the federal system requires a constitutional amendment with broad consensus, making it nearly impossible for Trump to change the election system. However, we can say that Trump, who has consistently made questioning election security a part of his election strategy, is preparing for the November elections with the same tactics.