Kaleidoscope mirrors

Will Russia, Turkey, and Syria act together to attack the U/S/?

You cannot ask “Will the normalization efforts between Ankara, Moscow, and Damascus transform into a military action against the American presence in Syria, and their “ally,” the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)?”

An average reading of foreign policy will get applause from the popular culture average, but that is not how things work.

The correct reading is: The potential of the convergence between Ankara and Damascus, mediated by Russia, “will affect the destiny of the PKK-U.S. axis in Syria.”

If you really want to see them “crushed,” then you need to ensure Iran, Israel, Sweden, Ukraine, and the East Mediterranean are all focused on the same objective.

Sweden is different, but Finland is much more different

We have been hearing a lot of voices rising from Sweden after their NATO membership bid was blocked by Türkiye’s conditions. However, do you hear anything from Finland?

This is not because Türkiye has been saying from the start that “the problem is Sweden, we don’t have much of a problem with Finland.”

Helsinki has about a 1300-kilometer border with Russia. They have managed since World War II to maintain their relations with Moscow on quite a reasonable, manageable ground.

If it wasn’t for U.S. intense pressure, they probably would not even care about Ukraine. The real matter is the North Pole. Finland’s NATO membership is not required for support to Kyiv, but to siege Russia, and the economic reality in the North Pole.

As much as 70 percent of the major oil and natural gas fields in the area today are found in Russian waters. In addition, the Fins’ “icebreaker ship” has boosted production capacities.

One look at the region’s map will leave no need for long analyses. The U.S. and the U.K. will take them both under their wings even without NATO.

Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksi Razniko gave an interview last week.

He said, “It was openly declared at the NATO summit in Madrid that Russia will be the primary threat against the alliance in the upcoming decade. Ukraine is eliminating this risk today. We are fulfilling NATO’s mission. They are not shedding their own blood. We are shedding our own. Therefore, they need to provide us much greater support.”

I felt ashamed reading it.

First, he accepted that this is a NATO operation. He mentioned no “homeland defense.” He did not even mention once freedom or independence.

Second, it’s a vile language. He literally said, “We are sacrificing our own children’s lives for NATO, for the U.S., and the U.K.”

I give up!

Azerbaijan, Türkiye in Israel

Two critical countries in Iran equilibriums. Two critical countries in the Caspian, Armenia equilibriums. Two critical countries in the Organization of Turkic States. Two critical countries in energy policies. Two critical countries in Russia relations. Two critical countries along the Balkan-Black Sea line, in other words, in Ukraine as well.

What else?

Two critical countries marched together with their joint synergy, energy, and power toward one state, one nation, and one army.

These two countries are now taking joint steps in Israel. Let us first look at this.

As the newly appointed Turkish ambassador was presenting the letter of credence, Azerbaijan appointed its first ambassador to Tel Aviv.

This brings us additional keys to Syria and Armenia's dilemmas in the first step.

There is no need to exaggerate it. We will see in time whether this is good or bad. For now, let us contemplate “What Baku, plus Ankara, plus Tel Aviv means.”

Who is boosting Pashinyan’s confidence?

There is a state of “confidence” in Yerevan.

It had dropped its guard after the Azerbaijan-Armenia war.

For some time now, it is even standing up against Russia.

Of course, there is a background story to this. First, the CIA director visited Yerevan. Then, U.K. MI6 Chief Richard Moore. Baku-Yerevan peace meetings were going to be held in Moscow. But Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan backtracked and said, “I’m not coming.”

Meeting et cetera with Russia were held on the telephone. But it could be sensed, things weren’t going well. Armenia decided last Tuesday to withdraw from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)’s 2023 drills.

Pashinyan said, “After an essential and well-rounded situation assessment, the Armenian administration has decided not to organize or participate in any joint drill within the scope of the CSTO this year.”

So, they are boycotting. These are steps to move away from Russia. Furthermore, there are protest demonstrations et cetera being held in front of the Russian military bases in the country. This is also a step to move away from peace with Azerbaijan.

Surely Moscow knows “who spoiled the table,” why, and the Ukraine effect. Baku and Ankara know as well. Because this is a step against them all.

To keep a long story short: Kremlin said, “Yerevan is breaking the peace.”

A harsh warning is needed – or, you can also read it as, “a harsh warning is coming.”

As the Iranian president prepares to visit Türkiye

Tehran recently announced it will first visit Damascus, and then Ankara.

If it does not happen this month, it seems certain in February. As an introduction, Thursday President Reisi and Putin held a telephone meeting.

It will be an important visit for Syria, for Armenia-Azerbaijan, for Israel, for Iraq, and even for Ukraine and Türkiye’s energy base discussions.

But Syria is the priority.

Türkiye and Russia do not want to exclude Iran from the Syria table. They want to include it.

Syria, on the other hand, wants to include it more. The Russian influence over the administration is unquestionable, but Iran’s presence in Damascus is an element of balance for Syrian leader Bashar Asad against Russia!

Iran does not want its presence in Syria minimized. It sees it will follow in Iraq. The fact that the normalization process is supported by Arab countries, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, gives rise to additional sensitivities for Iran. Israel is not happy. In fact, it is attacking it.

If you look at it from a different angle, you can even see the common interest between the U.S. and Iran! Perhaps Israel will take care of that!

You may see a lot of hugging and kissing, but the table will be chaotic!