For Netanyahu, the writing appears to be on the wall

We are living through days of closed-door diplomacy, where critical developments struggle to break into the headlines. There are two reasons for this: First, global and regional events are moving at a dizzying pace, making it hard to keep up. Second, in the age of information overload, separating signal from noise has become increasingly difficult.

One such underreported event was a recent visit to Ankara. On April 19, a Hamas delegation arrived in the Turkish capital, holding talks with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Intelligence Chief İbrahim Kalın. While Ankara remained tight-lipped about the details, Arab media reports suggest Hamas presented Türkiye with a comprehensive ceasefire proposal—one it hopes Washington will consider.

Türkiye’s Diplomatic Weight and Hamas’s Gambit

President Trump’s public emphasis on his strong dialogue with President Erdoğan—even standing beside Netanyahu—underscored Ankara’s diplomatic leverage. This, without a doubt, gives Hamas room to maneuver. According to Arab sources, Hamas has handed Türkiye a five-year truce proposal, seeking U.S. backing through Turkish mediation. The plan reportedly includes regional and international guarantees, with Hamas accepting the formation of an independent Palestinian committee to govern Gaza—a significant shift.

This aligns with the joint statement issued at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Arab League, Türkiye, China, and Russia, which rejected Trump’s "voluntary resettlement" plan and insisted on Gaza’s reintegration into the Palestinian Authority. Hamas’s apparent endorsement of this framework in Ankara marks a notable development.

Under normal circumstances, such a visit would have drawn fierce backlash from Israel. Yet Netanyahu stayed silent. Why? Because Trump himself revealed that the U.S. is also engaging with Hamas—not just Türkiye.

The Widening Gap Between Trump and Netanyahu

Netanyahu’s room for maneuver is shrinking. October 7 was supposed to be his opportunity—a chance for Israel’s security establishment to establish buffer zones in neighboring states. But what began as a strategic play has now backfired. Before October 7, Netanyahu was aligning with Washington’s regional blueprint: a Saudi-led Arab-Israeli normalization, reconciliation with Türkiye, containment of Iran, and a U.S. pivot to China. But after the attacks, he tried to dictate his own terms—a move that has only deepened the rift with Trump.

Israel’s current doctrine—preemptive strikes against perceived threats—risks plunging the region into deeper chaos, a scenario that clashes with Washington’s exit strategy. The growing divide between Trump and Netanyahu was on full display this past week.

The Saudi Wildcard and the Two-State Mirage

Washington is pushing Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel. In return, Riyad demands U.S. cooperation on civilian nuclear technology—and, crucially, a commitment to a two-state solution. Last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced an impending nuclear deal with the Saudis. But has Riyad softened its stance on Palestine? Not yet. Will the U.S. soon make a symbolic gesture toward a two-state solution? That remains to be seen.

The Syria Factor: A Warning to the SDF

Meanwhile, in Syria, another shift is underway. Despite the Israeli Chief of Staff’s theatrics in the Golan Heights, Israel has held off on airstrikes since Trump’s public rebuke. President Erdoğan’s subsequent warning—"Whoever stands in the way of Syria’s lasting stability will face both Damascus and us"—was telling.

Timing is everything. Just as Israel was lobbying Washington and Moscow for Syria’s partition into four spheres of influence (U.S., Turkish, Russian, Israeli), reports emerged that the U.S. has begun withdrawing troops and shuttering bases. Western media claims Washington has explicitly told Israel and the SDF: "We are shifting from a military to a political role." The withdrawal is also seen as a message to the SDF: "Speed up your integration with Damascus."

While the U.S. still presents Damascus with unrealistic demands for sanctions relief, it is making one thing clear: It will no longer play guard dog for Israel (or the PKK) in Syria.

Netanyahu’s Last Stand?

The most explosive fault line between Trump and Netanyahu is Iran. The two countries have begun laying the groundwork for a potential nuclear deal, with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stating, "If Iran wants a peaceful nuclear program, it can have one like many other nations." Israel, of course, would prefer military action. Netanyahu could still attempt to force Trump’s hand by creating facts on the ground—dragging the U.S. toward Armageddon.

But the real question is this: Netanyahu’s aggression has been driven, in part, by his need to keep his bloodthirsty coalition intact and himself in power. If he is blocked internationally, can he survive domestically?

I believe the endgame is in sight.