Has the expected response come from Tehran?

To understand the trajectory of US-Iran tensions, it would be appropriate to look back at the 12-Day War in June, as there are many similarities with current events. To grasp the developments, I have revisited my notes from that time and tried to look behind the scenes of what is happening today. What is going on? Has the expected response from Iran arrived… Let me explain.

IRAN HAD TRUSTED THE US

One. Before Israel struck Iran on June 13, diplomatic traffic was underway between Washington and Tehran. Trump's special representative Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi were in talks. A sixth round had been scheduled for June 15. But first, this meeting was postponed, and then Israel attacked Iran. I noted a conversation with a source that day as follows: "We had warned Iran that an attack was possible. However, our message was not taken seriously. The reason was their trust in the US guarantee that 'We will not permit an Israeli attack while negotiations are ongoing.'" Iran being attacked while negotiations were ongoing created a major crisis of trust in Tehran. The second point is Trump's unilateral withdrawal in 2018 from the nuclear deal made between Obama and Iran in 2015. These two reasons, in particular, lie in the background of Iran's difficulty in coming to the negotiation table today.

THE PHONES WENT UNANSWERED

Two. While Israel continued its attacks on Iran, the US had also raised its tone. US intervention in the crisis could have sent developments spiraling out of control. Therefore, President Erdoğan held separate talks with Trump and Pezeshkian, trying to find a middle path. Trump had accepted Erdoğan's proposal for a trilateral meeting, saying, "My plane is ready, I can board and come to Istanbul within an hour." He later proposed sending Vance and Witkoff to Istanbul. The matter was relayed to Iranian President Pezeshkian. However, the expected response from Iran never came that day. "Iran did not explicitly say they refused to negotiate, but they also did not answer the phones." Following this, the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. There is various information regarding why Iran did not respond that day. I recall hearing the analysis that "Iran did not respond to Trump in order not to grant that stature to Türkiye." Later, reports appeared in the international media stating that "Erdoğan's efforts failed because Khamenei, who shut down communication over assassination fears, could not be reached."

THERE IS A NEWS FLOW SIMILAR TO BEFORE THE 12-DAY WAR

So, what is the situation today? The US is making a military buildup. News is circulating that Trump has not yet made a final decision, is leaving the door open to negotiations, but could take action if Iran does not come to the table. Türkiye and Qatar are striving to get the US and Iran to sit at the negotiation table. It was reported that President Erdoğan proposed mediation to Trump. Foreign Minister Fidan also gave the US the message: "Separate the files, start with the nuclear issue, finish it, then discuss the other topics."

Sources say… "The thing being worked on is enabling the US and Iran to talk. Efforts are ongoing. It is said, 'The nuclear issue is a global matter. Negotiate this topic, the remaining regional issues. We will resolve those within the region.' Iran does not want to negotiate all four of these files with the US. They particularly do not want to step back on the ballistic missile issue because they see it as related to their own national security."

MIXED SIGNALS ARE COMING FROM IRAN

The Americans appear to have accepted this. Discussions are now focused on Iran's nuclear negotiations. According to a report in Axios; Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar are trying to organize a meeting between American and Iranian officials in Ankara this week. So, what are the Iranians saying? The signals are mixed. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said regional countries are trying to build trust. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Laricani said, "Progress is being made on establishing a framework for negotiations." Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, took a harsh stance on Sunday, saying the US wants to swallow Iran and seize its oil, gas, and minerals. (Important note: There was a nuclear deal made by the Obama administration with Iran. Trump withdrew from that deal. If there is to be a nuclear deal, Trump would not want to make the same one. That would not count as a success for him. Therefore, in addition to a nuclear deal, he will likely ask Iran for other things—probably related to oil. The analysis can be made that Khamenei sees this background or that the conditions have been conveyed to him in this manner.)

TWO GROUPS ARE RACING AGAINST TIME

Now we can move to the background. Diplomatic initiatives have brought Trump to the point of talks. So, has there been feedback from Iran? As of the hours when this article was written yesterday, a "Okay, let's talk" response had not yet arrived in Ankara from Tehran. However, the Iranian media wrote yesterday afternoon that Pezeshkian had given the order to restart negotiations with the US.

It is said… There are currently two groups active on this issue. One. Countries striving for the crisis to be resolved through negotiation (Let's write Türkiye, Qatar, Egypt here.) Two. Countries trying to ensure US intervention in Iran (Israel is the main actor. Could the United Arab Emirates also be written here, even if it doesn't show its hand?)

It can be seen that… Time is running short. We will see which side's efforts will achieve a result. If the Americans think Iran is stalling, they could take action.