Trump is unaware of the consequences of his actions

It’s the nature of things. If your understanding of the region is at the level of "Turks have wanted to take Syria for two thousand years"... If you’re making policies based on rumors you’ve heard... If you try to solve the Middle East’s most deep-rooted issue with a brainchild exile project whispered by your son-in-law... Things will go off-track... You’ll shatter the perception bubble Israel has carefully built for nearly 50 years.

I’m talking about President Donald Trump’s exile plan for Palestine. But the issue is not just about Gaza and exile. Trump also responded with “This will happen” when it came to the annexation of the West Bank. He aims to erase Palestine altogether. He encourages Netanyahu by insisting that the ceasefire should end if prisoners aren’t released, saying, "Then let the apocalypse begin." Conflict and war are being used as pressure tools on Arab states.

FOUR COUNTRIES THAT CAN STOP TRUMP

The success of Trump’s exile plan depends on the position taken by four countries. Two of these countries are directly involved in the issue. Jordan and Egypt will be affected demographically, economically, and politically.

When Israel first brought up the proposal, Egypt had considered it a cause for war. They won’t give Trump the same response now, but they are resisting. Cairo announced that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation would hold an emergency ministers' meeting. The Arab League also decided to hold an emergency meeting. Egyptian President Sisi postponed his visit to Washington, and Jordan’s King Abdullah does not want to face the pressure from Trump in front of the cameras in Washington.

Trump said next to King Abdullah, "We will take over Gaza and hold it." King Abdullah responded that they need to wait for Egypt's plan and a meeting in Riyadh. In other words, the Arab states will bring forward a common policy and plan. It’s said that this policy includes building Gaza without expelling the Palestinians and the condition of a two-state solution.

ANKARA’S POSITION IS CLEAR

The other two countries are Türkiye and Saudi Arabia. Türkiye has significant weight in the region and the capacity to disrupt plans. Ankara’s stance on the issue is clear. President Erdoğan said this proposal was nonsense.

Considering that the U.S. Middle East policy is based on Saudi-Israeli normalization, Riyadh has the potential to negotiate and convince Trump. Therefore, as we mentioned before, the key issue is how Riyadh positions itself.

We started off on the wrong foot with Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) due to the Gulf Alliance and the Khashoggi murder. However, Saudi Arabia has been performing relatively well recently.

We’re talking about a Riyadh that sat down with Tehran in Beijing and struck a deal, and even though they’re not yet a member, applied to join BRICS. When Trump took office, he requested a trillion-dollar investment. While MBS didn’t say no, we see that he’s shifted toward a more pragmatic line, focusing on national interests.

RIYADH-TELE AVIV VERBAL SPAT

Riyadh tells Washington, “I’m willing to work with you. I’m ready for leadership in Arab states and normalization with Israel. But I have some conditions. I want the same security umbrella you’re offering Israel. I want civilian nuclear work. And for the resolution of the Palestinian issue, I expect at least a declaration of intent for a two-state solution.” The exile and annexation policy contradicts this declaration of intent.

In the last few days, Riyadh’s position has been solidified. The Saudi Cabinet, led by MBS, met and declared, "We reject exile." Netanyahu had said, "If they want a Palestinian state, they can establish it in Saudi Arabia." Riyadh responded, “We categorically reject the extremist remarks made by Israel.” This, to put it mildly, is a verbal spat.

ARAB-ISRAELI ISSUE AFTER YEARS

Israel has long had a strategy in its psychological warfare mechanism. To be able to solve the Palestinian issue in their own way, they minimized the regional crisis on a rhetorical level. This crisis started as Arab-Israeli tension, then turned into Israeli-Palestinian tension, and finally was presented as Israeli-Hamas tension. By shrinking the scale, Israel weakened its opposition and made its attacks sustainable.

However, with the exile project, the issue seems to be returning to the Arab-Israeli tension phase. The Riyadh-Tel Aviv verbal spat tells us that. Keeping the issue in the Arab-Israeli phase will free the Palestinians from isolation, strengthen the opposing bloc against Israel, and impose sharp responsibilities on the Arab countries that are stakeholders in this matter. Let’s support this process.