Aid cuts could cause over 22 million preventable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children, study warns

A major new study projects that cuts to international health aid could result in more than 22 million preventable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five. Published in The Lancet Global Health, the research—described as the most comprehensive modeling on this topic to date—links declines in donor funding to sharp increases in mortality across low- and middle-income countries.

Modeled Scenarios Based on Recent Trends

Researchers analyzed the relationship between aid levels and death rates from 2002 to 2021, then projected outcomes under three scenarios: maintaining current funding, a “mild” reduction in line with recent trends, and a “severe” reduction where aid falls to roughly half of 2025 levels by 2030. Under the severe scenario, an estimated 22.6 million excess deaths would occur, 5.4 million of them young children. Even a mild reduction could lead to 9.4 million additional deaths, including 2.5 million children under five.

Donor Cuts Already Underway

Lead author Prof. Davide Rasella noted that the mild scenario is already plausible given current trends, while the severe scenario reflects proposals by right-leaning parties gaining influence in several donor nations. Significant cuts have already been announced: U.S. aid spending dropped from $68 billion to $32 billion in 2025, the U.K. plans to reduce aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2028, and Germany and Sweden have also made substantial reductions.

Impact of Past Aid and Risks Ahead

The study estimates that past international health aid contributed to a 39% reduction in under‑five mortality, with particularly strong effects on deaths from HIV/AIDS, malaria, and malnutrition. Researchers warn that sudden funding withdrawals could reverse decades of progress, urging donors to consider the human cost of austerity in global health.