Expert warns Türkiye faces worst drought in 50 years, a 'new normal'

Türkiye is confronting one of the most severe droughts in the last 50 years, with scientific data indicating the condition is becoming a chronic and structural crisis. Professor Mikdat Kadioglu, from Istanbul Technical University's Climate Science Department, states the persistent water deficit marks a "new normal" under climate change, with severe implications for water security, agriculture, and the economy.

Alarming Long-Term Drought Indicators

The severity is captured in the State Meteorological Service's (MGM) Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) maps. The critical 12- and 24-month SPI indicators, which reflect impacts on reservoirs and groundwater, show widespread areas of extreme drought (indicated by SPI values of -2 or lower). As of August 2025, approximately 70% of Türkiye's land was classified under severe or worse drought conditions, forming a persistent drought belt across the nation.

Critical Impacts on Major Cities and Agriculture

Major urban centers are under severe stress. Istanbul, with over 15.7 million residents, saw June 2025 rainfall drop 99% below averages, with reservoir levels plummeting. Ankara and the wider Central Anatolia region recorded their lowest rainfall in 65 and 47 years, respectively. The drought has devastated agriculture, with reports of up to 90% yield loss for sunflowers in Thrace and reduced crop quality due to heat stress.

An Urgent Call for Systemic Adaptation

Professor Kadioglu warns that consecutive dry years have depleted soil moisture and groundwater, increasing risks like sinkholes. He emphasizes that the national water budget now runs a chronic deficit impossible to remedy with conventional methods. The expert stresses that urgent, large-scale adaptation—including fundamental reforms in water management, agricultural practices, and national climate policy—is no longer optional but essential for the country's future.