Turkish Cypriot security relies on Türkiye's guarantor power, analysts warn

Türkiye's guarantor role and its strategic importance for the Turkish Cypriots' security are at the forefront as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) heads to the polls this Sunday for a decisive presidential election. Experts warn that the election results will profoundly impact the nation's sovereign status and the continuity of its vital relationship with Ankara.

A Critical Juncture for Sovereignty

Associate Professor Emete Gozuguzelli of Ankara Social Sciences University described the upcoming vote as a potential turning point for national security and sovereign status. She pointed to escalating military and geopolitical developments in the region, including the growing military cooperation between the Greek Cypriot administration and Israel. "Neither Southern Cyprus, Greece, nor Israel wants Turkish Cypriots to be sovereign in this region," Gozuguzelli stated, framing the election as a decisive moment for the future of the Turkish Cypriot people and their relations with Türkiye. She powerfully encapsulated the sentiment, saying, "Türkiye means homeland. Türkiye means a guarantor power in Cyprus. Türkiye means a force ensuring peace and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean."

The Imperative of the Strategic Alliance

Echoing this view, Professor Neriman Saygili, Dean of Girne American University's Faculty of Communication, stressed the democratic nature of the process and the critical need to maintain strong relations with Ankara. "The security environment in the region makes Türkiye's role as a guarantor even more crucial," Saygili noted, adding, "The presence of our motherland, Türkiye, is crucial." The professor highlighted Ankara's consistent efforts to ensure the TRNC's survival and to secure greater international recognition for the state, also praising Türkiye for resolving the TRNC's long-standing water issue. Saygili concluded that the TRNC must "absolutely" stand side by side with Ankara on energy and security matters.

Enduring Partnership and Regional Power

Professor Ata Atun also emphasized the high stakes of the presidential election for the TRNC's future. He underlined the deep-rooted military and political ties between the two nations, asserting that "as long as the TRNC exists, the exclusive economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean will be under the protection of the Republic of Türkiye." This, he argued, would allow for the full establishment of the Blue Homeland doctrine. Professor Atun also highlighted Türkiye's advancements in its domestic defense industry, noting its position as "the second-largest military power in NATO after the US," bolstered by its locally produced weapons, UAVs, and armed UAVs.

Context of the Cyprus Issue

The island of Cyprus has been divided for decades following a Greek Cypriot coup in 1974 that sought union with Greece, which prompted Türkiye's military intervention as a guarantor power to protect Turkish Cypriots. The TRNC was subsequently founded in 1983. Peace talks, including a 2017 initiative under the auspices of the guarantor countries—Türkiye, Greece, and the UK—have thus far failed to find a comprehensive settlement. The Greek Cypriot Administration was admitted into the European Union in 2004.