Amid war threats, diplomacy edges forward in US-Iran tensions

Against a backdrop of heightened military threats and warnings of regional war, a narrow path for diplomacy between the United States and Iran has become visible, potentially running through Türkiye. In recent statements, US President Donald Trump indicated that Iran is in serious contact with Washington, while Iranian officials confirmed progress is being made on a framework for negotiations. This diplomatic pulse persists even as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group steams toward the Persian Gulf and Iran’s leader warns of a “very harsh” response to any attack.

Mixed signals from Washington and Tehran

President Trump’s public remarks underscore the current dual-track approach of pressure and potential talks. He stated that Iran is negotiating “seriously” and that there is an option for a deal, but he paired this with a reminder of the formidable US naval force heading to the region. On the Iranian side, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, countered the prevailing media narrative of imminent war, asserting publicly that “the process of forming a structure for negotiations is progressing.” However, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei simultaneously warned that any US-initiated war would expand regionally and be met with severe retaliation, illustrating the high-stakes gamble of any diplomatic outreach.

Türkiye emerges as a potential host for critical talks

The most concrete development lies in active regional shuttle diplomacy. According to reports in the US press, a potential meeting between US and Iranian delegations is being organized, with Ankara as the proposed venue. This initiative is reportedly the result of coordinated efforts by Türkiye, Qatar, and Egypt to lower tensions. The recent visit of Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to Tehran is seen as part of these de-escalation efforts. Türkiye’s potential role as host underscores its established position as a trusted mediator capable of facilitating dialogue between adversaries, a diplomatic asset that reinforces its strategic importance in the region.

The shadow of military preparations and strategic maneuvers

The delicate diplomatic feelers are cast against a stark military reality. The US military buildup is presented as a deterrent, but analysts note it could also be part of a pressure strategy to force Iran into concessions. Israeli media has speculated that Trump’s combination of threats and negotiation offers could be a “trap” designed to corner Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran is solidifying its own strategic posture, planning a joint naval exercise with China and Russia in the Gulf of Oman in mid-February. This display of military cooperation with major US rivals sends its own signal of defiance and prepared resilience, ensuring that any talks would begin from a position of mutual, armed caution.