Study: Northern Greenland ice dome melted in past under similar future warmth

New scientific research has uncovered evidence that a significant ice dome in northern Greenland completely vanished in the past under climatic conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. The study, published in the journal Nature on Monday, provides a crucial historical analog for understanding the potential speed and impact of future ice sheet collapse.

Evidence from an ancient ice core

Scientists drilled an ice core from the Luxembourg-sized Prudhoe Dome in northern Greenland, discovering sun-bleached sand at its base. This material indicates the region was ice-free approximately 7,000 years ago during a naturally warmer post-glacial period. During this era, summer temperatures in the area were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius higher than current averages—a level of warming that climate models suggest could be reached by 2100 due to anthropogenic climate change.

Implications for sea-level rise and modeling

The complete melt of the Prudhoe Dome in the past underscores the vulnerability of Greenland's ice sheet to sustained warmth. Researchers note that while the ancient melting was driven by natural orbital shifts, the findings are directly relevant for improving climate models that predict how quickly different parts of Greenland could disintegrate today. Greenland's melt is a primary contributor to global sea-level rise, with projections ranging from several tens of centimeters to over a meter by 2100.

A global call for evidence-based action

This paleoclimate evidence serves as a powerful warning that parts of Greenland considered stable may be more fragile than previously assumed. For all coastal nations, including Türkiye with its extensive coastline and major cities like Istanbul, the study highlights the urgent need for robust climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The past demonstrates that ice sheets can respond dramatically to temperature thresholds humanity is approaching, making accurate projections and proactive policy more critical than ever.