Turkish academic develops early warning system for extreme weather hazards

A Turkish academic has developed an innovative early warning system designed to predict extreme weather events before they cause damage, according to a study published last month in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Professor Hasan Tatli of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University's Geography Department told Anadolu the system makes meteorological hazards "predictable" and "of great importance" for disaster preparedness.

How the System Works

Tatli explained that the Early Warning System Integrated model combines dynamical systems theory with weather forecasting to create a dynamic risk index tracking four key factors: weather sensitivity, recovery capacity, threat propagation potential, and behavioral tendency index. Using atmospheric data, national meteorological information is reduced to four main components and converted into easily interpretable warning signals. The model can issue alerts 3 to 60 hours before rapid-onset events such as convective windstorms, heat waves, cold waves, and drought.

Applications Across Sectors

The system enables preventive measures against sudden weather events threatening agriculture, food security, and urban infrastructure. "Drought, frost and heavy rainfall threaten agriculture and food security and cause fluctuations in production," Tatli noted, positioning the model as an early warning tool for the agricultural sector. It also addresses vulnerabilities in energy and transportation systems strained by heat waves and flooding. The model accounts for compound hazards—for example, drought triggering wildfires—and can generate signals before these processes develop.

Climate Change Context

Tatli described human-induced climate change as "forced climate change," increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, hail, and tornadoes. While no fully reliable system exists for predicting exact tornado or storm intensification, the model calculates risk values between 0 and 1. "Natural events will always occur; preventing them from becoming disasters depends on preparedness through early warning systems," Tatli concluded.